Saturday, April 3, 2010
Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino, Las Vegas, Nevada
PPV at 10:00 EST
Light Heavyweights: 12 Rounds
Bernard Hopkins, 50-5-1 (32 KOs), Philadelphia. PA. Vs. Roy Jones, Jr. 54-6 (40 KOs), Pensacola, FLA.
Fight Odds: Bernard Hopkins (-380), Roy Jones, Jr. (+300)
Over/Under: Under 11.5 (Even), Over 11.5 (-140)
Analysis: Two big names fight on April 3 when Bernard Hopkins and Roy Jones, Jr. renew their rivalry. These men first met in 1993. Jones, perhaps closer to his prime than Hopkins was, won a decision in a dull and only moderately competitive middleweight title fight. A lot has happened in the last 17 years.
Both men established themselves as all-time greats and first-ballot hall of famers. While there is debate over who had the better career, there is no doubt who has aged better. Hopkins, 45, is still one of the world’s best light heavyweights, having scored a series of big wins well into his forties. Two fights ago, he beat undefeated middleweight champion Kelly Pavlik in decisive fashion. He is still capable of beating the best. While no longer capable of physically overwhelming his opponents, he utterly out-thinks them. And even though he’s 45, his body is well preserved as a result of his Spartan lifestyle and ultra-professional outlook on his boxing.
Jones, Jr., 41, has not aged well. He seemingly went from an unparalleled force in the ring to a vulnerable one overnight. Over the past several years, he has suffered several humiliating defeats. There are a growing number of boxing observers who feel he should not be fighting anymore, especially in light of his first-round knockout defeat to Danny Green a few months ago in Australia. He appears to be putting himself at great risk at this point.
This rematch is overly ripe and has very little appeal to hardcore fans except for the curiosity angle. But it is still a fight between two of the biggest names in the game over the past 20 years and there is genuine bad blood between the two. It is compelling in that sense and it actually figures to be an entertaining fight. Both men will be highly motivated. Hopkins wants to settle the score with his longtime nemesis, while Jones, Jr. wants to prove himself the better man and show he can still fight. Both men are prideful old champions with something to prove.
If you take a giant leap-of-faith and rule out Jones’ total lack of punch resistance, it is not impossible to see him boxing himself to a decision win. This modern version of Jones, Jr. is a reasonable facsimile of vintage Jones, Jr. Until he gets hit. Any punch that solidly connects on his head has the potential of knocking him sideways. While Bernard Hopkins, especially at 45, is not the biggest puncher, he doesn’t have to be. He is still crafty enough to score repeatedly on a fighter even as fast as Jones, Jr.
Hopkins might actually be the better fighter now than he was when they first fought in 1993. The opposite can be said for his opponent. Jones, Jr. has not merely slipped, but he has plummeted to depths seldom seen in all-time greats of his stature. Normally, an all-time great might get beat or even splattered before being shown the door. Jones, however, has been laid out, battered, and embarrassed repeatedly to the point where it rings hollow to even portray him as a top fighter anymore. They say you can never count out a great champion, so I suppose we give Jones, Jr. the benefit of the doubt here.
Prediction: Jones, Jr. will get hit and he’s not going to like it. You can’t fix a glass chin or psyche your way through it. There is a small chance that Jones, Jr. can call on his great talent once more to see him through. I doubt it. Hopkins still knows where to put the punches and figures to get enough over on Jones, Jr. to get him out of the fight, maybe somewhere around the 7th or 8th round.
Bet: Take Bernard Hopkins at –380 to win
Related posts:
