3:30 EST Time Slot on Saturday
Every week in college football the 3:30 EST time slot on Saturday’s provides bettors with numerous marquee match ups on the board, and Week 1 is no exception. All season at the Belmont we will have an article previewing these games, which ones to wager on, which to stay away from and general information to help you make educated, informed and winning wagers.
Purdue Boilermakers (+11) @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-11); Total set at 54.5
- The Irish begin with new head coach Brian Kelly and without QB Jimmy Clausen so they are in a small state of transition. However, they are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 home games against Purdue, and despite about 60% of the action taking the points with the visitor, the line has moved in favor of the Irish after opening at -10.5. This annual meeting was a 3 point game last season, but Purdue has many holes to fill on both sides of the ball, and Coach Kelly will have this team primed and ready to get off to a great start. Notre Dame and its fan base are desperate for a winning season, and after winning only 6 games each of the last three seasons, the Irish should come out of the game flying.
-Lay the points with the Irish.
Connecticut Huskies (+2.5) @ Michigan Wolverines (-2.5); Total set at 54
Like Notre Dame, Michigan is desperate for a winning season again and they begin 2010 against a UConn team that many experts like to be the Big East champions this year. The “Big House” has lost some of its intimidation in recent years, but in no way do the Wolverines want to head to Notre Dame next week at 0-1.
Bettors seem to be listening to all the talk surrounding Connecticut this year and many (80%) are taking the road team on the ML here and forgetting about the points. The Huskies are returning 16 of 22 starters and have a solid defense so this may be one of the best games in Week 1. Michigan finished the year 1-7 SU and 1-5-1 ATS and they have been waiting for months to get that rotten taste out of their mouth. If they want to get their historic program back on track it starts with a win here against a quality opponent in UConn.
-Lay the points and take Michigan
Kentucky Wildcats (-3) @ Louisville Cardinals (+3); Total set at 49
After three straight seasons of losing to Kentucky, the Cardinals are listed as small home dogs to open the season and they are looking to shock Kentucky. Louisville returns 9 starters on offense, including 4 linemen and are hoping that they can have a repeat performance of the 2006 opening game when they beat Kentucky 59-27 at home.
Both teams welcome in new head coaches this season, but it is Kentucky’s head coach that has more pressure having to continue the winning program that retired coach Rich Brooks created over the past few seasons, going 3-1 SU in Bowl games the last four years.
Kentucky has more holes to fill on offense, yet over 90% of the action is being booked on them as the small road favorites but the line hasn’t budged. Many are also backing the under here, yet the number went up from 48.5. Based on line movement, betting trends and the fact that Kentucky’s new coach is named “Joker”, I think the joke could be on Kentucky backers here.
- Lean towards Louisville + the points and over the total
UCLA Bruins (+1.5) @ Kansas State Wildcats (-1.5); Total set at 44
- The line movement on this line has already moved in UCLA’s favor as they opened as 2.5 dogs and are booking most of the action. With the Pac-10 slated to be wide open this season, UCLA has a chance to be a quality team this season. However, they have to replace 6 starters on defense and are up against a team that keeps 4 of 5 O-linemen, face a defense that held 7 teams to under 20 points last year and have a veteran coach back in Bill Snyder. Don’t forget that UCLA also has to make that long cross-country flight and play an relatively early “body-clock” game to start the season.
My leans on this game would be on the home team here, as I really believe that UCLA could be looking ahead to Stanford next week and those new starters on both sides of the ball could struggle in a hostile environment.
Take Kansas State at home to win ATS
The big favorites: Oregon (-35), Texas (-31) and Clemson (-25.5)
- All three of these teams are huge favorites, with only Texas being forced to cover that big number on the road. All three teams have seen significant line moves in their favor (a couple of points in each case) thanks to so much action being booked on them. I don’t think all three of them can cover these huge numbers and I lean towards Clemson being the team most likely not to cover. They will miss C.J. Spiller’s talent and versatility and they are 0-3 ATS the last three years as 20 point favorites or more.
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