Detroit Regular Season Wins: Over 5 at (-135) or Under 5 at (+115)
With the Lions having lost 30 of their last 32 games over the past two seasons, one may immediately look at the +115 on the Under here and begin to lick their lips. Yes, that record is nothing to be proud of but they did increase their win total by 200% last season after 2008, so if that trend continues a 6 win season should be in store for Detroit in 2010.
The Lions sent prized QB draft choice Matt Stafford into the fire last season, and well he experienced the usual rookie struggles, he did show flashes of excellence at times. He is still going to be a solid QB in the NFL throughout his career, and it will be interesting to see how much better he will be in the NFL with a year under his belt now. He has an amazing outside weapon in Calvin Johnson, whose speed, size and hands are some of the best in the league. The Lions also went out and added some veterans to their line up this season with the addition of Kyle Vanden Bosch to the defence to help give some stability to that side of the ball and also mentor #2 overall pick Ndamukong Suh at DT. One thing is for sure, with the Lions being so bad for so long now, they do have a plethora of young talent on their roster (thanks to high and multiple 1st round draft choices) that could begin to take the next step into becoming a decent football team in 2010.
Now getting over 5 wins, doesn’t really make you a decent football team, but for the Lions and their fans, anything over 3 is an improvement, so after that they are just playing with house money. The Lions start off the season with a tough stretch with three of their first four games on the road against division rivals, with a home game against the Eagles mixed in. A 0-4 start is a very real possibility and that does put bettors behind the 8-ball for this prop bet of Over 5 wins.
They do have games against the Rams, Bills and Buccaneers this season, all of which have season win totals listed at 5 or 5.5, so those are winnable games for the Lions. They have also gone 0-12 SU the last two seasons against division rivals, a trend that can only change in the positive direction, so don’t be surprised if they can get an upset win against a division foe at some point in 2010. They do get the Vikings at home in Week 17 of NFL betting, which is always a good opportunity for a win against a team with nothing to play for at that time.
Detroit does have one of the tougher schedules in the league, but one thing for sure is that they will be better on both sides of the ball. Last season, Detroit was the worst in the league in turnover margin, which is one of the most important stats in terms of winning and losing. The Lions were a -18 overall thanks to 32 INTS thrown by their QB’s. The law of averages will bring them back towards the middle of the pack this year in that category, which will lead to more wins.
Although it is tough to lay -135 on a team like the Lions to win 6 games, it is a feat that they should accomplish and the odds makers believe that as well, otherwise why put all that juice on the over right?
Take Over 5 wins for Detroit in 2010.
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