Belmont.com Sports Betting News

Lakers, Thunder move series to L.A.

BelmontEditor — Fri, 18 May 2012 19:55:05 +0000

The Los Angeles Lakers are down 0-2 to the Oklahoma City Thunder and are in major need of the homecourt advantage when they meet for Game 3 on Friday night.

Los Angeles is a 2 ½-point favorite with a total of 191 ½. This is the second half of the ESPN doubleheader after Boston (+2) at Philadelphia. The Celtics put a road thumping on the 76ers last game (107-91) and now lead that series 2-1.

The Lakers (45-30 SU, 32-43 ATS) got blown out 119-90 in this series opener, conjuring up memories of the 1985 ‘Memorial Day Massacre’ to Boston in the NBA Finals. The Thunder easily covered as 7 ½-point home favorites and the game went ‘over’ the 192 ½-point total.

Coach Mike Brown’s team certainly has some flaws, but everyone knew they would play much better in Game 2. It looked like a sure Lakers win with a 75-68 lead with 2:08 left, but Oklahoma City pulled a shocker by scoring the final nine points.

L.A. did get the cover as eight-point underdogs, but that’s little consolation to fans who want to see their team advance to the Western Conference finals.

Oklahoma City (53-19 SU, 38-34 ATS) is breathing a sigh of relief as a split heading to L.A. would have been dangerous. Remember they headed to Dallas up 2-0 last round and ended the series by winning and covering the next two on the road.

Kevin Durant is scoring 23.5 PPG this series. He surprisingly took just 15 shots (making nine) last game in over 42 minutes. He needs to be more aggressive offensively on the road and will need to be up around 30 points for the Thunder to win.

Oklahoma City is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS against the Lakers this year. The games in Southern California were 1-1 SU and ATS with the most recent one the 114-106 double OT win by L.A. on April 22.

Metta World Peace was suspended for seven games after April 22 for an elbow to the head of James Harden. World Peace is shooting just 6-of-20 (30 percent) from the field in the two games, but is capable of getting pumped back up in front of the home fans, who don’t care if he maims someone as long as the Lakers win.

I like L.A. (-2 ½) to get back into this series with a win.

Late Night Interleague Betting: Oakland vs. San Francisco

BelmontEditor — Fri, 18 May 2012 17:56:35 +0000

Oakland (+100) vs. San Francisco (-110); Total set at 6.5

Pitchers: Jarrod Parker vs. Barry Zito

The Battle of the Bay will write another chapter this weekend as these two cross-town rivals battle in interleague play this weekend. They are quite familiar with one another since they play two series per year in interleague and who can forget their epic World Series against one another back in the late 1980’s. Oakland hasn’t had great success since then and while the Giants came away as champs in 2010, they came out of the gate slow again this year and can’t afford to fall even further behind the Dodgers.

Oakland managed to split both two-game series against division rivals L.A and Texas this week and are coming into this one looking to continue their winning streak against the Giants. Oakland swept San Fran in their last series a year ago, but all those games were at home. When they had met in San Fran earlier, the Giants got out the brooms and swept away the A’s. So can Oakland break through on the road tonight?

Well the home team is a perfect 10-0 SU in the last 10 meetings between the two and Barry Zito accounted for one of those victories. That was back in San Fran’s championship season though as he avoided the A’s all of 2011 when they went 3-3 SU against them. Jarrod Parker hasn’t pitched in this rivalry either and although he has been solid for Oakland this year, he still is a bit hit or miss at times. He has allowed 21 hits in 25.2 innings of work and if it weren’t for some rare run support Oakland gives him his record would be a lot worse. He has walked 12 batters in that span as well and that hurt him last time out in a 3-1 loss to the Tigers. San Francisco isn’t exactly a team that strikes fear into opponents with their offense, but if they can get some guys on base via free passes, the speed of this team can create problems for teams.

San Fran has been hitting the ball better of late too, putting up 27 runs in their last six games, posting a 4-2 SU record in that span. Zito is still nowhere near worth the big money contract the Giants locked him into years back but when he is on, he can be downright nasty. The Giants are 4-1 SU in his last five starts as a favorite and 6-1 SU when he is on the mound after they put up 5 or more runs. They have done well during interleague play in the past as well, going 7-1 SU in their last 8 and are 22-7 SU in their last 29 home games during interleague play. With the home team dominating this series in the past, I believe that trend will continue tonight as the Giants give a rude welcome to Parker in the Bay rivalry.

Take the Giants.

MLB Betting: Interleague Play – Cincinnati vs. New York Yankees

BelmontEditor — Fri, 18 May 2012 17:08:47 +0000

Cincinnati (+150) vs. New York (-165); Total set at 9

Pitchers: Bronson Arroyo vs. Andy Pettitte

The Yankees are likely glad to be back at home after their bats have gone silent the past three outings. They scored a total of 4 runs in their past three games in Baltimore (1) and Toronto (2) as they simply can’t get a hit with men in scoring position. That will have to change this weekend if they want to hang with the big swinging Reds who have got to be thrilled to play a series in Yankee Stadium. With the short porch in right field, Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips have got to be licking their chops at what kind of numbers they can put up this weekend.

The Reds haven’t had an issue scoring of late, there problem lies in the bullpen as they can’t seem to hold any leads. They blew a 4-0 lead to the Mets yesterday and have allowed opponents to score at least 3 runs against them in six of their last nine games. None of those teams have as potent a lineup 1-through-9 as the Yankees do, especially with many of them having extensive histories with Arroyo. Thankfully for Reds fans, they get a shot at knocking around an old Andy Pettitte tonight who looked alright in his first start of the year vs. Seattle until the lineup got to see him for a 3rd time. The Reds are a far better hitting team than the Mariners, so look for them to pounce on him early and often.

The Yankees understand that Pettitte is only a shell of his former self, but with the play of the rest of their pitching staff, he is still a valuable starter in the rotation. They do have to give him some support though if they want to win, something they haven’t done for any of their starters this week. But they are a team that likes to hit at home and are averaging 4.53 runs per home game this year. Many of them have plenty of plate experience against Arroyo from his Boston days so nothing they will see tonight will come as a surprise. The recent form of their offense is a bit concerning but given that they are 6-0 O/U with Pettitte on the hill after a loss and 4-1 O/U in his last five starts at home, they should be able to provide some support for him. As long as he doesn’t get hit around, the Yankees have a great shot at bouncing back with a win.

However, I don’t think laying the price with the Yankees is the best option in this one simply because Pettitte still has plenty of question marks about his production this year. Cincinnati is not a team you want to give extra at-bats too, especially now that they can use a DH. They are 10-4 O/U when Arroyo is listed as a road dog and they are 4-1 O/U in their last five overall. Both teams should be able to put up at least 3-4 runs tonight, making the over the best play tonight.

Take the over.

NBA Playoffs: Boston vs. Philadelphia – Game 4

BelmontEditor — Fri, 18 May 2012 15:50:01 +0000

Boston (+2) vs. Philadelphia (-2); Total set at 174

The Celtics let their experience show in Game 3 as they dominated the 76ers in the 2nd and 3rd quarters (outscored Philly 61-33) as they cruised to an easy win. Boston shot 51% from the field and hit 45% of their shots from beyond the arc. Garnett, Pierce and Rondo each had at least 23 points in what was the best game Boston has played in quite some time. They regained home court advantage with that win, but another W tonight would put them in the driver’s seat, up 3-1 in the series and heading home.

Philly has likely burned the game tape from the last outing as although they shot well statistically, they did nothing right in their own end and were completed owned by the Celtics. Five guys did score in double digits which is an encouraging sign as they need their supporting cast to be productive each and every night if they want to knock off the Celtics. But defensively is where they need to show drastic improvement tonight as they try and get back to the intensity that helped them win Game 2. They kept Boston off the charity stripe in that game and held Rondo and Pierce to under 10 points each as they forced Boston’s reserves to try and beat them.

Philly has played six of their last eight games under the total and they are 3-7 O/U in their last 10 playoff games as a favorite. They don’t really have the big name scorers on their team to match up with Boston in a shootout, so defense is how they are going to win. They are 1-4 O/U after losing by double digits at home while Boston is 1-4 O/U after winning by double digits. Boston understands that they won’t win too many games in this series in the fashion that Game 3 was played and have to play better defense of their own.

Remember, despite scoring a combined 198 points in this building a two days ago, the total is back to the number Game 2 was at after they went over the total in Game 1 with 183 points. I see this flip flop pattern continuing tonight as the defenses show up.

Take the under.

Preakness Stakes Betting Preview

BelmontEditor — Thu, 17 May 2012 18:08:09 +0000

Preakness Stakes

The second leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown goes this weekend with the running of the Preakness Stakes in Baltimore. Trainer Bob Baffert has won five of these races in his career and with him behind the horse Bodemeister, it isn’t surprising to see that horse start as the favorite for this race. He was one of the top guys heading into the Kentucky Derby and fell just short on that track to eventual winner I’ll Have Another who is listed second at +250 this week. Here are some betting options to consider for the race this week.

Who will win:

It is tough not to like Bodemeister in this one after his 2nd place finish in the Derby and Baffert’s track record here. But at +140 there isn’t a whole lot of value in backing this horse if you are looking for a solid pay day. A horse like Creative Cause (+600) and Went the Day Well (+600) have more value and have just as much talent to win this thing. They were in the Derby too and know what to expect from the two favorites in this one, so don’t think they won’t be afraid to take their shot down the stretch. I’ll Have Another had his 15 minutes of fame and I don’t see him being a factor for the win late.

My three horses to consider would be Creative Cause, Went the Day Well and Bodemeister

Will the Preakness Winner have run in the Kentucky Derby? Yes -500 or No +300

This is a very “juicy” prop bet but it’s almost impossible not to like the Yes here. All four of the horses that are listed at +600 or less ran in the Derby and it really should be a race between them. Daddy Nose Best is at +1500 and Optimizer (+2500) are the other two horses that ran previously and with 6 horses on the “Yes” side, you effectively have more than half the field with the top 4 favorites. Tough not to like that.

Take the yes at -500

Winning time of the Preakness Stakes: Over 1:55.00 (-160) or Under 1:55.00 (+120)

The last three years have all had the winner finish over that time but prior to that was three straight years of under 1:55, so this bet could go either way. The horses that were involved in the Derby got off to a blistering pace and it is tough to imagine that they would want to do anything else in this one.

Going back to 1989, those 23 running’s of the Preakness has seen 10 winners run below this number with a few of them clocking in the fastest times ever at this track. However, with no winner in that time going over 1:56.60 and only five finishing with 1:56 or higher chances are the winner stays right on or close to this number. Combine that history with the desire for these horses to run fast as they did in the derby, the value on the under is worth a shot.

Take under 1:55.00 for +120.

NHL Betting: Phoenix vs. L.A. – Game 3

BelmontEditor — Thu, 17 May 2012 17:26:56 +0000

Phoenix (+170) vs. L.A. (-200); Total set at 4.5

The Kings have flat out dominated this series so far and their 10-1 SU record in the playoffs has everyone talking about how great they have been this spring. They are now back at home and can once again take a commanding 3-0 lead in a series, something they have already done twice these playoffs. They haven’t fallen into the trap of being complacent coming home with a 2-0 series lead yet but they have also never been as heavily favored in any game this year as they are for this one.

NHL Playoff record: 22-18-4

I have mentioned all spring that anything can happen in the playoffs which is why I believe laying the -200 on the Kings is just too risky of an option. Yes, they have clearly been the better team and appear to be on a mission, but I don’t want to be laying 2-1 on any team in the playoffs. One bad bounce or bad call could change the momentum of any given game and while I do believe the Kings are just playing leaps and bounds ahead of the Coyotes at the moment, I am not considering a bet at -200. IF anything, I would lay the -1.5 on L.A. at +150 because they have covered that spread in the first two games and it is tough to see anything changing tonight.

However, the total sits at 4.5 again and although Quick continued his streak of not allowing more than 2 goals in any game last time out (7 straight games and 10 of 11 this playoffs), it was after his only other shutout this post season that 3 goals got by him. That was also a Game 3 (vs. Vancouver), when the Kings had come home and looked ready to blow the series wide open. L.A.’s offense has clearly got something going against Mike Smith so scoring themselves shouldn’t be too much of a concern after potting 4 goals in consecutive games against him. So the key to this wager is with Quick and how well you believe he is going to play.

I believe that Phoenix comes out with all guns firing like Vancouver did in that opening round as they need to get a win to get back into this series. They lost Martin Hanzal for a game due to a suspension, but Shane Doan is still in the lineup and he is the ultimate leader of this team. He understands the dire situation his team is in and that it’s enough of just sitting back in the opening periods and letting Mike Smith get peppered with shots while their opponents find their groove. This is basically a due or die game for the Coyotes and they should find a way to put at least two behind Quick.

With the idea of the Kings still taking this, scoring two themselves shouldn’t be a concern, pushing this total over the number.

Take the over 4.5 goals tonight.

MLB Betting: Boston vs. Tampa Bay

BelmontEditor — Thu, 17 May 2012 16:31:35 +0000

Boston (+109) vs. Tampa Bay (-119); Total set at 8.5

Pitchers: Felix Doubront vs. Matt Moore

We got two lefties going in this game as Boston tries to leave Tampa with a split in this short, two-game series.

Boston’s bats couldn’t get anything going last night against the Rays as they fell 2-1 in a very low-scoring game between these two. After starting the season with three straight games reaching at least 10 runs, the last two haven’t had more than 3 runs combined which is quite surprising given that neither “ace” started in any of those games. Tonight’s matchup between Doubront and Moore is a rematch of a 6-4 Boston win back at Fenway in early April. Moore actually lasted longer in the game, going 6.1 innings, but he was responsible for all 6 runs as Boston’s bullpen managed to save the day for Doubront. The Sox bullpen has been anything but good of late, so Doubront may have to go a bit deeper tonight if he wants his team to come out on top.

The good news for Red Sox fans is that they knocked Moore around that day and will likely field a very similar lineup tonight. Six of the nine starters in that game got a hit as Big Poppi led the way with two doubles and 3 hits overall. They got home runs from Mike Aviles and Cody Ross as those right handers sure like facing lefties. But their bats were cooled off last night against these Rays as Hellickson managed to get revenge on Buchholz and the Sox for an earlier loss this year. With all the pitching questions Boston has, they can ill-afford to put up 1 or 2 runs a night as they simply don’t have a chance in those games at the moment. This team is based around hitting and if they wake up and knock Moore around tonight, Boston should get the split.

With all the injuries Boston has, Tampa can’t be looking to get into a slugfest with them even though Doubront gives up 5 runs a game. He has allowed 38 hits in 38.1 innings pitched this year so if Tampa can string some hits together they can sit on the lead with their pitching. But they have had trouble supporting Matt Moore all year (3.6 runs scored in his starts) and because of it they are 2-5 SU overall in his 7 starts. He hasn’t been good lately (6.43 ERA, 5 runs/game) and this Boston team loves to feast on struggling pitchers.

Finally, Boston loves to support Doubront this year, giving him 6.7 runs in support this season and winning 5 of the 7 games he has started. With an interleague series against Philadelphia on deck, Boston understands that hitting won’t come easy in the next few days so they better make the most of this opportunity tonight against a struggling starter.

Take the Red Sox.

Lebron James feeling the Heat

BelmontEditor — Thu, 17 May 2012 16:05:40 +0000

The Miami Heat and superstar LeBron James are feeling the heat for Game 3 at the Indiana Pacers on Thursday night.

This Eastern Conference semifinal is all tied at 1-1. Miami is listed as a 1 ½-point road favorite with a total of 181 ½. ESPN will broadcast beginning at 7 pm ET.

The second half of the doubleheader starts at 9:30 pm ET and has the Clippers (+10) at San Antonio. The Spurs won and covered the opener, 108-92 as 11-point home favorites and are now an incredible 15-0 SU and 13-1-1 ATS in their last 15 games.

Miami (51-22 SU, 37-36 ATS) won Game 1 on Sunday (95-86), but lost big man Chris Bosh to an abdominal strain in the process and many were saying their championship hopes were over.

Coach Erik Spoelstra had his team ready to prove otherwise in Tuesday’s Game 2 and looked good into the second quarter with a nine-point lead (33-24). However, Indiana outscored Miami 28-14 in the third and held on for a huge 78-75 win as 6 ½-point ‘dogs.

The Heat have a lot of questions to answer after that game. It starts with James missing two free throws with under a minute remaining that would have given them the lead. His fourth-quarter troubles were infamous during last year’s playoffs and will continue to haunt him.

James and Wade also deferred to Mario Chalmers on the final three-point attempt to tie up the game. They combined for 52 of the team’s 75 points and one of the superstars needs to take that shot. The loss of Bosh also really hurt with no other player scoring more than five points. That won’t get it done, especially on the road.

Indiana (47-26 SU, 36-37 ATS) was celebrating like it won the NBA title after last game, and can’t get too comfortable even at home and with Bosh out again. They haven’t exactly been an offensive juggernaut in this series at 82 PPG and 39.1 percent shooting from the field.

The Pacers are 2-1 SU and ATS at home this postseason. Those came in the five-game series against Orlando with the ‘under’ going 2-1.

Miami went 1-1 SU and ATS away at the Knicks, with both games going ‘under.’ The first two games this series also went below the total.

I like the ‘under’ 181 ½-points again.

NBA Playoffs: L.A. Lakers vs. Oklahoma City – Game 2

BelmontEditor — Wed, 16 May 2012 18:50:31 +0000

L.A. (+8) vs. Oklahoma City (-8); Total set at 196

The Lakers have had some time to rest after their tough opening series and the beating they took in Game 1 of this series. More importantly though, L.A. needs to regroup and figure out a way to slow down Oklahoma’s offense from running all over them again. The younger Thunder annihilated the older Lakers as it this game was over about 2 minutes into the 2nd half. Many of Oklahoma’s starters rested the entire 4th quarter and will be ready to dominate again. Can the Lakers keep up?

L.A. knows all about the old saying of “a playoff series doesn’t really start until someone loses at home” and they would love to even this thing up heading back to Staples. But they didn’t exploit their size advantage inside and simply couldn’t get back on misses or turnovers as OKC scored at will on the fast break. L.A. did win the rebounding battle (43-41) though but they need to win it by a larger margin if they want to hang around this time. They are 5-0 ATS after losing by double digits and 6-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread, but they aren’t exactly known for their prowess as underdogs. L.A. is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 as road dogs and 1-7 ATS in the playoffs as underdogs if we go back a few years. They looked old and slow in the opener and unless they can control the pace of play for the full 48 minutes on the road tonight, chances are they will look old and slow again.

That doesn’t mean that OKC is the play here though as there is bound to be a sense of complacency on their squad after lighting up the Lakers like they did. Kendrick Perkins is still a question mark for the Thunder tonight and losing his size in the middle will put more pressure on the likes of Ibaka and Mohammed. That also means that the Thunder will want to keep the pace of the game at a very high speed, tiring out the old legs of L.A. once again. Veterans like Derek Fisher were brought in to keep this team focused on the prize and they cannot afford to give up home court with a loss tonight. They may not score 119 points again, but they should reach triple digits, especially if they attack the rim more.

L.A. has to have a better shooting performance from their supporting cast if they want to keep up and I believe they will. They are 15-6-1 O/U when coming off a loss and they are 13-5 O/U in their last 18 road games. Slowing the pace down and playing half court basketball is what L.A. wants to do, but that will have to wait until they get home. For now, its all about offense in what should be another shootout.

Take the over 196 tonight.

MLB Betting: Chicago White Sox vs. L.A. Angels

BelmontEditor — Wed, 16 May 2012 17:09:51 +0000

Chicago (+102) vs. L.A (-112); Total set at 7.5

Pitchers: Gavin Floyd vs. Jerome Williams

The Angels made the headlines this morning after they fired their longtime hitting coach Mickey Hatcher after the Angels have failed to sustain any sort of offense this year. That comes after two straight years of underperfoming offensively and the Angels management had decided enough was enough. A change is likely what was needed in that clubhouse has Hatcher’s message clearly was falling on deaf ears when even the new faces like Albert Pujols have struggled to hit the ball for the first month and a half. They get to face a pitcher (Floyd) who many Angels have had success against and with a new voice on the bench, tonight may be the night that the Angels get the bats going.

Vernon Wells, Alberto Callaspo and Maicer Izturis are three guys on this roster that have seen Floyd at least 18 times each and all are hitting over .300 against him. While Wells is expected to drive in guys, the other two are the “table-setters,” getting on base, taking the extra bag and ultimately scoring when the big bats get up. As long as Callaspo and Izturis can continue to have success against Floyd tonight, you should find them crossing the plate a couple of times.

The Angels have done some of their best hitting with Williams on the mound for them too, giving him 4.4 runs of support per outing, helping him sport a 3-1 SU record on the year. He has been quite dominant too (allowing only 2.3 runs in his last three) that L.A. has been able to get out to early leads and sit on them until the end. But his overall numbers on the year in terms of runs against sits at 4.2/game and this Sox lineup has some sluggers that can clearly knock the ball out of the park. Chicago is 4-0-1 O/U against a team that allowed 2 or fewer last time out and they are 8-3 O/U after allowing 5 or more themselves last time. They blew a 6-0 lead at home yesterday to Detroit and while the cross-country flight may be a bit troublesome for some bettors, I expect them to knock a few in tonight as well. They are 13-6-1 O/U on the road when the total is between 7 and 8.5 runs, and the over is a perfect 5-0 in their last five games out here. They may not have enough to get the W, but they won’t be held down like Oakland was last night.

The Angels are hoping that their coaching change can help get their high-priced sluggers back on track and tonight would be a great time to start it. They are 8-3 O/U after allowing 2 runs or less and the fresh voice will no doubt have the guys motivated to swing the bats well tonight.

Take the over in this game.