Atlanta Regular Season Wins: Over 9 at (-170) or Under 9 at (+145)
Atlanta is looking to rebound after a tough season last year that saw them go 9-7 SU after winning their final three games. QB Matt Ryan is in his third year in the league now and after surviving the “sophomore slump” he is ready to explode again in 2010.
They are looking to have their third straight winning season, and with 9 as the projected win total, the question becomes whether or not they can reach double digits. They have two games against the defending Super Bowl champion Saints as usual, but they also have a tough non-division schedule as they play six teams that had winning records in 2009.
It will be crucial for the Falcons to get through the first four weeks with a couple of wins. They play @ Pittsburgh, vs. Arizona, @ New Orleans, and vs. San Francisco before getting a bit of relief against Cleveland and Philadelphia, albeit on the road. Those first four games are so critical though because they could end up in a horrific position like 1-3 or 0-4 and then their backs would be against the wall for the rest of the year.
Atlanta still has games with Cincinnati, Baltimore and Green Bay left on their non-divisional schedule and all three of those teams are legitimate contenders for a Super Bowl in 2010. If they get off to a rough start and fail to post a winning record against these three teams, the chance at getting 10 wins is all but lost.
Moving forward, the Falcons still have two games against Tampa Bay and a rebuilding Carolina team, but the division always plays them tough, and they have only gone 3-5 SU when playing in Tampa Bay and 4-4 SU in Carolina since division realignment in2002.
They have the Rams and Seahawks as the remaining two teams left to face in 2010, both are winnable games, but both are on the road for Atlanta and both are sandwiched between very crucial games on either side. They provide let down spots for this team who is looking to get back to the playoffs.
Atlanta is a deep and talented team but they have proven over the past few years that they have a tendency to shoot themselves in the foot every so often and it appears they could fall victim to that once again this season. With four of their final five games against division rivals, you can bet that Atlanta’s foes will bring it those weeks as they would love nothing better than to ruin a division team’s hopes of the post season.
With the odds heavily juiced on the over, I would have to lean the other way. They just have too many tough non-division opponents, and they know that their divisional games are always heated and tough ones to win. 2008 and 2009 was the first time in Atlanta’s history that they posted back-to-back winning seasons, and I really find it tough for them to do the same this year. I project that Atlanta will finish at 9-7 or 8-8, so given the odds, the only way to go on this bet is with the Under.
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