Saturday, July 31, 2010
Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada
HBO at 11:00 pm (EST)
WBA and WBO Lightweight Championship
Juan Manuel Marquez, 50-5-1 (37 KOs), Mexico City, Mexico. World Lightweight Champion
Vs.
Juan Diaz, 35-3 (17 KOs), Houston, Texas
Fight Odds: Juan Manuel Marquez (-280), Juan Diaz (+210)
Preview: World Lightweight Champion Juan Manuel Marquez defends his title against former lightweight titlist Juan Diaz on July 31 in a rematch from a great fight they had in February of 2009. Diaz did well in their original bout before falling to the great Marquez in the 9th round of a sizzling encounter. Diaz was having success as he threw himself into Marquez, fighting with a fever pitch of passion and fire. Marquez was forced to call on all his powers to repel the challenge of Diaz.
Since their first fight, both men have had their rocky moments. Marquez took a big payday to become Floyd Mayweather’s comeback opponent in September of 2009. He lost practically every round in a demoralizing defeat. It was the first time the great Marquez had been defeated clearly in a fight. He was facing a bigger man and should be given a pass. A new arrival to the lightweight division, Marquez had little chance jumping two more divisions to face one of the best fighters of all time. Nevertheless, it was difficult to see Marquez looking so impotent even against Mayweather.
Diaz has gone 1-1 against Paulie Malignaggi since the first Marquez fight. Nothing against Paulie because he is a great boxer, but the Diaz of old might have had an easier time against the slick New York stylist. He appeared to be fortunate to get a decision in their first fight in Diaz’ hometown. When Paulie clearly outboxed him in the rematch, it appeared there had been some deterioration in Diaz. The fire was gone. With a fighter like Diaz who depends so heavily on that little extra edge, the effectiveness can be lost all at once when it begins to wane.
The first beating Diaz suffered at the hands of Marquez was the kind that can end careers. When you give your best effort only to have it swatted back in your face violently, it can take a lot out of you. Diaz was putting forth his best performance in the Marquez fight. He fought with such passion and looked better than ever. Marquez, the consummate pro, cleverly weathered the storm before beating Diaz down. Since then, Diaz has failed to capture his old form.
Marquez is no spring chicken at 36 and a long career of tough fights has perhaps begun to chip away at his effectiveness. His erosion is more in question, however, than Diaz’. Sure, Marquez didn’t look great in his last fight, but that was against Floyd Mayweather—a guy known for making his opponents look average. One is less inclined to overlook Diaz’ form in two fights against the much-lesser Paul Malignaggi.
Prediction: Diaz can possibly recapture some of his form with better motivation and a more suitable style matchup. Unlike against Malignaggi, he won’t be forced to look too hard for Marquez. I just think this is a bad move for Diaz’ team. Marquez appears to be all wrong for Diaz. I don’t think Diaz can even duplicate his performance from the first fight, which was a losing effort.
Marquez could be worse off at the present time than one might think. But he should be given the benefit of the doubt. I presume his form might not be quite what it was, but it is still good enough to repel the challenge of Diaz. I see Marquez strafing Diaz with straight shots right from the beginning of the fight. The punishment will mount over the middle rounds, and Diaz’ corner will pull him out of the fight around the 7th round. I like Marquez by knockout.
Bet: Lay the –280 on Juan Manuel Marquez to win.
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