Saturday, May 8, 2010
Home Depot Center, Carson, California
HBO at 9:45 pm (EST)
Junior Middleweight Division: 12 Rounds
Paul Williams, 38-1 (27 KOs), Augusta, Georgia.
Vs.
Kermit Cintron, 32-2 (28 KOs), Houston, Texas.
Fight Odds: Paul Williams (-600), Kermit Cintron (+400)
Analysis: Paul Williams meets Kermit Cintron in a 12-round junior middleweight this Saturday on HBO. With a win, Williams hopes to continue his climb up boxing’s pound-for-pound ratings. Cintron is vying to add a name to his resume that will give his career instant credibility. One of Williams’s best wins is over Antonio Margarito, who twice demolished Cintron in welterweight fights. In fact, Williams has lost only bout, to Carlos Quintana, who he knocked out in one round in the rematch.
This match has some stacked boxing betting odds, but can we find some value? Let’s check it out.
Williams’ best win might be his recent decision over current middleweight kingpin Sergio Martinez. After being floored and confused early by Martinez’ cleverness and athleticism, Williams doggedly dug in his heels and worked hard to grind out a razor-thin decision. In light of Martinez’ defeat of Kelly Pavlik, Williams’s win now looks really good.
Kermit Cintron gets credit for even being in this spot. It looked like he might be finished after the second Margarito beating. Those types of losses take something out of a fighter. Cintron nailed Margarito with every punch he could think of and all he got in return was a sneer and then heavy punishment. Then he earned an upset draw against Sergio Martinez to breathe some much-needed life into his career. Not that he deserved it; in fact, it was an egregious scorecard that night. But he should receive some credit for getting back into the fight after it seemed like the ref counted him out. There was no controversy when he beat blue-chipper Alfredo Angulo. That win put Cintron’s name back in the top ten. Was Angulo sick in that fight at not at his best? Maybe, but that doesn’t mean Cintron didn’t leave some observers stunned by the quality of his performance.
Kermit gets no favors here fighting one of the toughest all-around packages of talent in the game. Imagine a 6’1” junior middleweight with an 82-inch reach (2 inches longer than Muhammad Ali) that is rugged and throws 100 punches a round. That is what Paul Williams brings to the table. He lacks the rickety stature of other freakishly tall fighters. He can mix it up and takes a punch fairly well.
Williams seems a little perplexed sometimes by exceptionally slick fighters, but no one has ever given that tag to Cintron. Kermit is more of a power-puncher, though he did a great job out-slicking Angulo. Maybe he can add a little bit of that slickness to his hard-punching style to give Williams a hard time. The only problem is that Cintron does not have the physical gifts or boxing skills to consistently have an edge over Williams from long range. He will have to get inside where he has the best chance to rattle off the same shots that have given him 28 knockouts in 32 fights. In doing so, he will be right in the Williams wheelhouse to absorb the full brunt of his attack.
Prediction: Williams will enter into battle cautiously. Cintron can hit very hard, so I expect a feeling-out process over the first round or two, with action gradually heating up. Williams will gauge the level of danger and then begin flowing with his smothering attack. Cintron’s cruder attack will be met by greater sharpness, and Williams will begin to have his way with Cintron. As the fight wears on, Cintron will be unable to stem the tide of this almost irresistible-fighting force. By the 8th round, his cause will begin to seem hopeless. He might be competitive in spots and able to stand up to Williams, but after 9 rounds the sheer volume of punches landed by Williams will have Cintron out of the fight. Williams will win by TKO sometime around the ninth round.
Bet: Lay the –600 on Williams to win.
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