The Miami Heat have taken control of the NBA Finals with a 2-1 lead and could deal a severe blow to the Oklahoma City Thunder on Tuesday night.
Game 4 will be shown on ABC at 9 pm ET. Miami is a 3 ½-point favorite with a total of 192 ½.
Miami (60-27 SU, 45-42 ATS) has stormed back to win the last two games after dropping the opener. The latest win came on Sunday night, 91-85 as four-point closing favorites. That went way ‘under’ the 193-point total after the ‘over’ was 1-0-1 in the first two in Oklahoma City.
LeBron James had his third consecutive good Finals game with 29 points and Dwyane Wade added 25. Shane Batter only had nine points, but he was 2-of-2 from the field (both three-pointers) and 3-of-3 from the line. He is shooting an incredible 73.7% for the series with most of those from beyond the arc.
Oklahoma City (60-24 SU, 46-37-1 ATS) hasn’t exactly gotten the breaks with a non-foul call on James at the end of Game 2 and a wide disparity in free throw attempts last game (35-24). Miami also had a huge free throw advantage at home against Boston last round.
The Thunder do have themselves to blame as well by missing 11 free throws in Game 3 and having poor starts in the first two contests in Oklahoma City (they did make a comeback in Game 1).
Kevin Durant has been tremendous overall at 31 PPG, but he’s been hampered by foul trouble the last two games and has to play a little smarter. Russell Westbrook and James Harden both need to play well tonight for the team to win, with the latter struggling at just 11.7 PPG in the series.
The Heat are 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS at home this postseason and can possibly close out the series at home Thursday in the 2-3-2 format.
The picks for this series have all focused on the total with two of them being correct and one a push. This time the lean is toward the point spread with the Thunder being written off way too early and Miami previously showing it can get too overconfident at times in these playoffs.
I like the Thunder (+3 ½) to win tonight outright with Durant staying out of foul trouble and coming through in the fourth quarter.