Saturday, March 13, 2010
Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, Texas
HBO PPV at 9:00 EST
Vacant WBC Lightweight Championship: 12 Rounds
Humberto Soto, 50-7-2 (32 KOs), Tijuana, Mexico. Vs. David Diaz, 35-2-1 (17
KOs), Chicago, Illinois.
Odds: Humberto Soto (-625), David Diaz (+425)
Preview: Two good lightweights will do battle on the undercard of Pacquiao-Clottey as Humberto Soto and David Diaz contest the vacant WBC Lightweight Title. Some might remember Diaz for his one-sided loss to Manny Pacquiao. He is also a longtime standout who has lost only twice in a career that began way back in 1996. At 33, he is probably a little long in the tooth. When fighters who are in their thirties lose the way Diaz did to Pacquiao, they normally do not recover completely.
Soto has had a slightly different career route. He started off slowly and was considered a relative non-threat for the longest time. Over the past several years, however, he has managed to break the mold and become a top fighter at 130-135 pounds. He is active in the ring and can really fight. He hits hard and can take a great punch.
Diaz is an honest fighter, an overachiever-type who always gives his best effort. It just seems that Soto is the better fighter right now. They both last fought former champion Jesus Chavez. While Soto beat him by a mind-boggling 13 points on all three scorecards, Diaz only managed a close majority decision. While comparing performances against a shared opponent can be a faulty method in analyzing fighters, the result is probably a fair representation of their respective powers at this point.
Diaz is looking to extract some more glory out of his career and I expect him to be in shape and try his best like he always does. Soto is the fresher fighter at this point at 29 and is a favorite for good reason. He hits harder, is quicker, and probably has better punch resistance at this point. He has only been beaten up once and that was ten years ago—long before he became the fighter he is today.
Prediction: Stylistically, Diaz seems perfect for Soto. Diaz comes straight in and doesn’t employ the kind of shifty style that seems to give Soto trouble. For a straight-ahead fighter to be able to beat Soto, he will have to have enough power to gain Soto’s respect. With 17 knockouts in 38 fights, Diaz is not capable of creating that kind of mayhem. He can work the body well, but will not be hard for Soto to find. With Soto not being forced to dedicate all his energy just to find Diaz, I expect him to get his offense untracked in a big way.
Diaz will be game, but by the middle rounds, his effectiveness will begin to dip. I see Soto pulling away over the second half of the fight. Maybe he can secure a late-rounds stoppage, but I think Diaz will see the final bell in a clear win for Soto.
Bet: Lay the –625 and bet on Humberto Soto to win.
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