Saturday, August 28, 2010
Coliseo Mario Morales in Guaynabo, Puerto Rico
PPV at 9:00 p.m. EST
World Light Flyweight Championship: 12 Rounds
Ivan Calderon, 34-0-1 (6 KOs), Guaynabo, Puerto Rico, World Light Flyweight Champion
Vs.
Giovanni Segura, 24-1 (20 KOs), Bell Gardens, California
Fight Odds: Ivan Calderon (-340), Giovanni Segura (+260)
Over/Under: Over 11.5 (-300), Under 11.5 (+240)
Preview: World Junior Flyweight Champion Ivan Calderon makes a very difficult hometown defense against WBA titlist Giovanni Segura on Saturday. This is a rare chance for fans to see the best two fighters in the division fight each other in a high-stakes unification bout. Calderon, 35, will have to call on all his mastery to hold off the 28-year old powerpunching Segura.
Calderon is one of the smallest champions ever. At 5-feet and a buck and change, he is truly diminutive, but that hasn’t stopped him from emerging undefeated in 35 fights, including an astounding 19 title fights. Over time, the smooth boxing Calderon has forged a career ranking among the best ever at 105-108 pounds. A win here would be a legacy-building triumph.
Segura looks to do damage. With 20 KOs in 24 wins, his M.O. is to land power shots. This is a great matchup of styles where the battle lines are already drawn. Segura, with advantages in height and reach, will actually be looking to get in Calderon’s chest and do damage with his hard shots. We will see who is more adept at imposing their own style.
Calderon is well liked in his hometown of Guaynabo—the site for this fight. Not to in any way condemn the officiating in Puerto Rico, but Segura will definitely have a built-in disadvantage. Nevertheless, I expect him to relish the opportunity of dethroning a long-standing and undefeated champion in his hometown. It would be a landmark victory for Segura.
It will not be easy. Calderon is a slippery southpaw of the highest order. His movement is pure and elegant, as he circles the ring gracefully and effortlessly. His right jab controls fights. And he’s tough. The little guy can take a punch and has guts and heart to soldier through tough situations. He has climbed off the mat to win before and he can do it again. But let’s face it—he can’t go forever. 35 is ancient for fighters at this weight. While still a boxing master, Calderon’s skin has tendered with age and he seems to get caught with more regularity lately.
Segura is sharp, but showed deficiencies against Cesar Canchila in his only loss a little over 2 years ago. He crushed Canchila in the rematch and has since been back to his steamrolling ways, with 4 straight stoppages. However, that quartet of opponents had a combined 29 losses. Whether he can catch Calderon is another matter altogether. Even if you catch him, Calderon is so smart that he rarely falls for the same thing twice. Calderon is able to make adjustments and think on the fly under distress. He is a true veteran. Segura has his hands full here to be sure.
Prediction: There are a number of interesting betting options for this fight. It is perfectly reasonable to forecast a decision win for Calderon. He is fighting at home and eager to further establish some clear-cut Hall of Fame credentials in the twilight of his career. At the same time, he seems vulnerable. The cuts are a problem, having prematurely ended 3 of his last 4 fights. He had the technical draw against another banger in Rodel Mayol a few fights back and 3 split decision wins since 2007. Is the writing on the wall?
I think Segura has tremendous boxing betting value here. A good young champion, he perhaps has the ability to do one better than some of Calderon’s recent opponents. With this fight being in Calderon’s hometown, it won’t be easy. With some trepidation, I’ll take Segura for an upset pick and straddle it with the “under,” also going at a good price. Even if Segura doesn’t win, we can make a profit if the issue of cuts rears its head.
Bet: Take the +260 on Giovanni Segura and +240 on the “under.”
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