Jacksonville (+3) @ Philadelphia (-3); Total set at 33.5
Trends are a funny thing most times because although they give you solid numbers mathematically as to how a team could perform in a certain scenario; they also can be quite random at times as well. For example, the Philadelphia Eagles are 0-6 ATS during their first pre-season game over the past six seasons of NFL betting, but are 10-1 ATS in week 2. I don’t think that a ton can change in just a week, so to see an anomaly like that is quite odd. That was the McNabb era though, and with him gone now, maybe the Eagles begin anew; or maybe since Andy Reid is still there, they fall back into old habits.
Since 1990, the Eagles do not have a winning ATS record in the pre-season as a favourite or a dog, but are worse when listed as a favourite. They are 18-26 ATS as a fav, compared to just 14-19-2 ATS as a dog, and with such a difference between week 1 and 2 in their past performances, it really is tough to like them ATS in any preseason game unless it is Week 2.
The Eagles begin the Kevin Kolb era now and he will have some pressure on him in 2010 to try and replace the success McNabb brought to the city. Kolb is a very accurate passer and can be more consistent in the long run than McNabb, but we have yet to see if Kolb can step up in the big games like Donovan could. The “big games” are still far away, but everyone has to start somewhere right.
Jacksonville improved their defence in the off-season with DE Aaron Kampman and Kirk Morrison acquired in free-agency and trades, so expect this Jacksonville team to go back to what got them success in earlier years which was a tough, hard-nosed football team that loves to run the ball. MJD is one of the top RB’s out there, and the other guys on the roster are all fighting hard for the backup role, so expect them all to have good showings in this game. That is the same story for the young WR core in Jacksonville, as there are numerous roster spots open to those that can impress in the pre-season.
However, what it boils down to is the fact that for whatever reason, the Eagles are a team that needs a game underneath their belts in order to play well in the pre-season and as odd as those numbers are, they just can’t be ignored.
Take the young, motivated Jaguars at +3 in this contest.
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