Jose Luis Castillo vs. Alfonso Gomez Fight Preview and Prediction

Jose Luis Castillo vs. Alfonso Gomez Fight Preview and Prediction

11th March 2010 in Boxing Betting

Saturday, March 13, 2010

Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, Texas

HBO PPV at 9:00 EST

Welterweights: 10 Rounds

Jose Luis Castillo, 60-9-1 (52 KOs), Mexicali, Mexico. Vs. Alfonso Gomez, 21-4-1 (10 KOs), Guadalajara, Mexico.

Odds: Jose Luis Castillo (+175), Alfonso Gomez (-215)

Preview: These two fighters will fight on the big stage, under the Pacquiao-Clottey main event in Cowboys Stadium. Both men need a win here to be a factor in the stacked welterweight division. The loser of this bout can expect to go to the back of a long pack. Both men are familiar to even casual fight fans. Castillo is a longtime mainstay and Gomez starred in the TV-reality series “The Contender.”

Castillo, 36, has had the better career, but is well past his peak. At 36, he appears to be in the middle of a long descent down the proverbial hill. Many fans don’t even realize he lost to Sebastian Lujan in 2008, the same Lujan who gained notoriety for almost having his ear torn off by Antonio Margarito. He was also fortunate to earn a split nod in a difficult bout with Herman Ngoudjo. He has been in many wars, namely his legendary battle with Diego Corrales—the consensus fight of the decade. Since being splattered by Ricky Hatton, Castillo has regressed.

Gomez will never scale the heights that Castillo has. He’s a solid fighter with good skills, but he has never been able to achieve anything more than middling contender status. He is not capable of beating the best fighters in the division, but he can give everyone else a tough fight. Castillo is no longer among the best. Chances are he is no longer even as good as Gomez’ last opponent—Jesus Soto-Karass, who Gomez won a technical decision against.

Castillo did the right thing by spending the past year in Mexico fighting slouches and getting his confidence back. He needed some wind in his sails after his recent bad run. While he might have enhanced his mental outlook, it is unlikely that he cured his other problems. He is also not a real welterweight, having spent the bulk of his career at lightweight. Gomez has fought the far bigger opponents, especially during his stint on “The Contender” when he fought a series of fights against good middleweights. He even holds a win over Jesse Brinkley who is now a contender in the super middleweight division.

There are those who feel Gomez was never that good to begin with and even a slipping Castillo can handle him. It takes a leap-of-faith to think Castillo has salvaged enough of his original effectiveness to still be a factor, especially at welterweight. After 3 years of continued decay, why would he turn it around now? You never know exactly what was going on with Castillo during his recent rough patch. Maybe he just lost his zest for the game and is now looking to renew his career. That seems doubtful. The bottom line is great champions rarely if ever regain their edge once they have lost it.

Prediction: Gomez will be too fresh and quick for Castillo. The old champion will put forth a proud effort and might even trouble Gomez with what remains of his immense skills. He can probably still go to the body pretty well and with 52 knockouts, he can never be ruled out completely. However, I see Gomez using just enough movement and quickness to nullify Castillo’s efforts. It’s one of those fights where you ask yourself: “Which fighter would you rather be?” Gomez is younger, has the brighter future, and is the better fighter at this point.

I look for Gomez to win a competitive but clear decision.

Bet: Lay the –215 on Alfonso Gomez to win.