Saturday, April 17, 2010
Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City, New Jersey
HBO at 9:00 EST
WBC/WBO Middleweight Championship: 12 Rounds
Kelly Pavlik, 36-1 (32 KOs), World Middleweight Champion, Youngstown, Ohio. Vs. Sergio Martinez, 44-2-2 (24 KOs), Madrid, Spain.
Fight Odds: Kelly Pavlik (-150), Sergio Martinez (+120)
Preview: Kelly Pavlik defends his middleweight titles against Sergio Martinez on April 27 in Atlantic City on HBO. This is a fight that has hardcore boxing fans very excited. Those who tune in are bound to see an exciting fight. Pavlik, while still the champion, is in a bit of a swoon. First came the non-title loss to ancient Bernard Hopkins in a fight where he not only lost, but also was exposed in a way. Watching him struggle to win even a ten-second portion of that fight led many to believe he has trouble with shifty and clever boxers. And that description fits Sergio Martinez to a tee.
Pavlik had a gruesome staph infection on his hand that took a long time to recover from. Rumors of his drinking also surfaced and it appeared the young champion had gone a bit wayward. Since beating Jermain Taylor in a rematch 2 years ago, he has lost to Hopkins and scored three wins over easy competition. Let’s just say we expected a more upward trajectory for Pavlik after he burst onto the scene with a series of dominant performances a few years ago.
Martinez last fought pound-for-pound entrant Paul Williams in a fight that could have gone either way. Martinez lost the decision—only his second loss in a 13-year career. At 35, he appears to have a lot of fight left in him. He is quick, gutsy, and accurate. He seems to have amazing timing and a high ring IQ. Watching him slam Williams with hooks repeatedly shows he has no problem with taller fighters.
The main threat to Martinez in this fight is Pavlik’s power. He can wield the right hand with devastating affect. He is rugged and prideful, but also one-dimensional. He seems to fare better against fighters who come right at him. Against more tactical fighters like Hopkins, he seems to lose his effectiveness. I don’t expect Martinez to cooperate with Pavlik. Expect to see him employ a moving style where he uses his speed to offset the brawling Pavlik.
Watching Williams be able to reach Martinez rather easily in the second half of their bout should give pause to Martinez backers in this fight. Many times, Martinez appeared fortunate to be evading Williams’ power shots by the smallest of margins. While Martinez will not be facing quite the voluminous hailstorm that Williams dished out, Pavlik is undeniably a harder puncher. The lapses in defense that Martinez showed in the Williams fight could spell disaster in this fight.
Pavlik is young enough at 27 to shake off his recent woes. At the same time, the last two years of his career might not be the best way to prepare for a prime talent like Martinez. A few years ago, Pavlik might have been as large as a 4-1 favorite. The closeness of the odds now reflects both the growing doubt surrounding Pavlik and the swelling optimism surrounding Martinez.
Prediction: One cannot call Pavlik a frontrunner, especially after seeing him come back from a near knockout to starch Jermain Taylor for the title. But against Hopkins, he had no answers once things started getting away from him. I expect Martinez to use his speed and cleverness to give Pavlik a very difficult time early. The question is: Can Pavlik hang in there and stay confident enough to mount a rally? To some degree, I think he can. Martinez will have to summon tremendous will to soldier through the shots Pavlik is bound to land on him.
I think Martinez will be motivated to make his mark on the game in this fight. At 35, it’s no longer enough to merely be known as a good fighter. If he is going to make his move, he has to do it now. And I think it’s a good spot for him. I see him controlling the first half of the fight and hanging in there during the latter rounds to secure a decision win.
Bet: Take the +120 and bet on Sergio Martinez to win.
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Idiotic article almost totally devoid of facts. I stopped reading with the first “one-dimensional” comment. No astute observer believes Pavlik is one dimensional. It’s just something ‘tards with little boxing knowledge love to parrot.