Jacksonville (-2.5) @ Tampa Bay (+2.5); Total set at 37
The big news for this game is that the Jaguars are playing it safe the rest of the preseason and resting their star offensive threat RB Maurice Jones-Drew. Given that he will be the bulk of the offense this year for Jacksonville, this is a smart move to avoid injuries and keep him healthy. The Jags don’t really have a dangerous passing game and this not only gives the Jaguars time to rest Jones-Drew, but also focus more on developing that passing game these next two games.
So what does this roster decision mean for tonight? It means that with starters from both teams (minus MJD) seeing action into the third quarter tonight, Tampa Bay has a decided edge in being more well-rounded. They are a young team themselves and any win they get only builds upon their confidence heading into the season. As a home dog here that doesn’t have to worry about a running game they present great value, especially with a QB in Josh Johnson who looked great last week and is still making a case for the potential starting role if things go bad early on.
Another factor to consider with Jones-Drew is to play the over in this game and here is why. Jacksonville will be exploring their options in the passing game and trying new things through the air, so that means larger gains downfield (if completed), shorter drives, and more stoppages in the clock on incompletions. Therefore it has a chance to be a longer game and to see some points put up on the board.
Jacksonville has played fairly vanilla on defense already this preseason (they allowed 28 and 27 points so far) and this annual preseason meeting between State rivals always produces high scoring games. These teams have played every year in the preseason for years, but since 2005, all five games have played over the total with the totals always being in the mid 30’s range like it is tonight.
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