There’s nothing like betting on the big fight. The true magnitude of this mega-event, however, transcends the world of boxing wagering. The support of these two fighters is fierce and their millions of backers are not timid about putting their money where their mouth is. The frenzied action will send the betting for this fight into the stratosphere.

Let’s look at the early odds for Mayweather-Pacquiao.

Odds to Win:

Floyd Mayweather (-150), Manny Pacquiao (+120)

Over/Under:

Over 11.5 (even), Under 11.5 (-130)

Behind the Numbers

Anyone who writes about odds or boxing betting has little right to call into question those who get paid the big bucks to set these numbers. At the same time, it’s okay to raise an eyebrow. Anytime a fighter on a tear like Manny Pacquiao is an underdog, it is a surprise. Certainly, his most rabid supporters are insulted by the +120 quote. Then again, it would be a shock to see Mayweather as an underdog, a status he has not had in his entire career. Pacquiao has won as an underdog at least 4 times, which perhaps speaks volumes about the quality of their respective opposition. The odds to win, however, seem like a fair representation of reality. It also gives both sides of the debate the ability to receive good value on their wagers.

The over/under odds are perhaps surprising to some. The more optimistic Pacquiao faction might envision their man not only defeating Mayweather, but also destroying him. Some might picture Mayweather slowly breaking Pacquiao down and scoring a late stoppage. Stranger things have happened.

Nevertheless, if Shane Mosley and the relatively diminutive Juan Manuel Marquez managed to go the distance with Mayweather, why can’t Pacquiao? And since he’s settled in at welterweight, Pacquiao hasn’t exactly been blowing guys out. Miguel Cotto almost made it the distance and Joshua Clottey went the full 12 rounds with him in his last two fights. Mayweather brings exponentially better defense and overall boxing ability to the table than Cotto and Clottey combined.

The mixture of styles could combust into a cutthroat brawl, but it might just end up being a tense fight, with the heavy exchanges coming more sporadically. There is often an air of hyper-respect in megafights like these that prevent each man from cutting loose. A stoppage, whether legitimate or by cuts, is not out of the question, but it’s still strange that the over is the underdog in this fight.

The Case for and Against Floyd Mayweather

Mayweather supporters base their faith on his undefeated record, but also the fact that he has been relatively unchallenged in the ring. He has parlayed magnificent boxing skill, a heightened ring IQ, and his marvelous athletic gifts into a Hall of Fame career. He is as fast as they come, but the suddenness in which he delivers shots is his real strength. There’s no swing, no wind-up of any kind, just—Boom! The shots are not the strongest in the game, but they do hurt. Usually, Mayweather deters his opponents with these punches to the point where they look like sparring partners in the latter rounds. The bottom line is that Mayweather doesn’t want a crowd-pleasing brawl, but rather a scientific boxing contest. He always tames his opponents early so that he can box their ears off later.

The case against Mayweather is that he has not survived the gut-checks that we expect the real greats to pass. Sure, it’s nice to see a long run of unchallenged dominance. But sometimes, it’s nice to see the hero dig deep and pull one out—something Mayweather hasn’t done. It would be one thing if Mayweather’s unchecked greatness were merely a result of him being so far superior to his opposition. The feeling, however, is that his lack of tough fights are more a result of cagey matchmaking. One has to wonder if Mayweather is battle-tempered enough to withstand the fury Manny Pacquiao brings to the ring. What tough-fight experience does he have to call on when the going gets rough?

The Case for and Against Manny Pacquiao

It’s not so much what he has managed to accomplish that makes Pacquiao stand out. What really separates him from other fighters is the fact that he’s getting better as he moves up in weight and age. It is not that unusual to see a little improvement from a fighter moving up one division, or even perhaps two weight classes. Manny has improved moving up from flyweight to welterweight—a span of a staggering NINE weight classes. He has not only defied the odds, but also won with a flair that few could have predicted. After struggling twice with Juan Manuel Marquez at featherweight and junior lightweight, it is almost unfathomable to reflect on the dominance he has shown crushing lightweights, junior welterweights, and now welterweights.

Manny has never ducked any fighters. It just so happens that many of his best wins were against fighters who weren’t necessarily at their peak. Much of his reputation was built on victories over Marco Antonio Barrera, Erik Morales, Oscar De La Hoya, Ricky Hatton, and Miguel Cotto—all men who were at least a tick past their best. When you look at his struggles with Marquez, a very technical boxer, it becomes easy to envision Mayweather giving him a very difficult evening. Manny has improved since the Marquez fights. Mayweather, however, greatly surpasses Marquez in the very areas that troubled Pacquiao, so that evens out that equation to some degree.

This is not an easy one to pick. Even betting sharpies are really going to be put to the test in this one. Good luck with your picks!