Detroit (+105) @ Minnesota (-115); Total set at 7.5
The Twins are looking to sweep the Tigers tonight and keep maintaining (or even building upon) their lead over the White Sox in the division. They send Scott Baker to the bump tonight who has been great of late, posting a 2-0 record in his last three starts with an ERA of 2.95 and a WHIP of 1.31. Despite that recent success, facing the Tigers is something Baker hasn’t liked to do in 2010 with a 1-1 record, but Detroit has scored 15 runs in those two games. Both of his starts have played over the total which was always at least a run higher than this total of 7.5.
Detroit hasn’t been able to win on the road this season at all, otherwise they would be in the thick of the playoff chase as well. They are 22-43 SU on the road this season and if they want to avoid getting swept for the second time this year in Minnesota, Justin Verlander must continue is recent good form. Verlander has posted great numbers in the ERA (2.57) and WHIP (1.19) categories in his last three starts, but Detroit is only 1-2 SU in those games and are really hanging him out to dry on the mound. If the Tigers can get rolling again offensively against Baker tonight, they should be able to help Verlander out tonight.
As far as trends go, Detroit is 4-1-1 to the Over in their last 6 games after scoring 2 runs or less and are also 5-1-1 to the Over in Verlander’s last 7 starts against Minnesota. Detroit is also 3-8 SU in the last 11 meetings with the Twins, but they are 12-3 SU in their last 15 games after losing the first 2 games of a series, so they really don’t allow opponents to sweep them easily.
Similar to Detroit, Minnesota is 6-0-1 to the over in Baker’s last seven starts after their opponent allowed 2 runs or fewer in their last game, and they are 6-1-1 to the over in Baker’s last eight starts after allowing 2 runs or less previously. The over is also 5-1 in Baker’s last 6 home starts against Detroit and 4-0 in his last four starts against them at either venue.
With trends like this and so much action already on the under because of the recent form of these pitchers, I lean heavily to the over in this game and expect at least a 5-4 type score. Despite some injuries on both sides, these teams should clear a number like this fairly easily tonight.
If you are looking to play this game, take the over.
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