New York (+160) @ Atlanta (-170); Total set at 7.5
These games in the final month of the season are definitely more important to the Braves and they have shown it in the first two games of this series. Atlanta has won 9-3 and 9-2 over the Mets the past two nights, with Philadelphia hot on their heels for the NL East crown. New York is just playing out the stretch once again in September, but they do send Michael Pelfrey to the mound tonight.
After a tough stretch in June/July, Pelfrey has rebounded of late going 2-1 SU in his last three starts with an ERA of 1.57 in that time. He has been stellar in those games and he may be the one bright spot left for Mets fans to watch in September. If present form continues, he should be able to cool off Atlanta’s hot bats significantly and give the offensively woeful Mets a chance at winning this game.
This rivalry has had some interesting betting notes attached to it in 2010 as the first 10 games they played against one another all finished under the total, until the last three meetings sailed over. During that 10 game under streak not one total was posted at 9 or higher, and the final six games in that span were all under posted numbers of 7.5 or lower. That is a sign to bettors that these teams really play tough against one another and that every hit counts.
I believe that will be the case tonight and these rivals will revert back to the old form of low scoring affairs. Over 80% of bettors see a small number like 7.5 and know that Atlanta has cleared that number alone two nights in a row and have wagered on the over in this contest. These two pitchers faced off in late April and the final score of that game was 1-0, back when rosters were full and players weren’t worn down from the grind of the season.
The home plate umpire Tim Timmons has gone 9-15 O/U this year and only averages seeing 8.26 runs scored in games he calls. Both teams are missing some significant firepower from their lineups and this game has pitching duel written all over it.
Take Under 7.5 runs tonight.
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