Colorado (+104) @ Arizona (-114); Total set at 10
The Arizona Diamondbacks are finally back at home and they hope that a little home cooking is what they need to get back into the victory column. Arizona is coming off a nine game road trip where they lost all 9 games SU and were swept by three division rivals. Tonight is their chance to get some revenge for a few of those losses as they face Colorado; the Rockies swept Arizona to begin their road trip.
Going 0-9 on a road trip has got to be extremely demoralizing for a club, but the Diamondbacks have since had a day off to get re-accustomed to life at home, as well as, understand that they have some good things to build off of. The final two games of that road trip consisted of 1-0 losses to the Dodgers which is actually good news in a way for Arizona because it shows that their pitching is finally coming around.
The Diamondbacks have the worst starting rotation in the MLB with an overall ERA of 5.64, allowing an on-base percentage of .350 and allowing a league worst 88 homeruns; the next worst sits at 66. Those numbers have also been recently helped by those back to back 1-0 losses, so for Arizona those pitching performances are actually good news. Especially since you combine those numbers with the fact that Arizona also has the league’s worst bullpen with a 7.51 ERA and another league worst in homeruns allowed at 33, it really is tough to see the Diamondbacks doing well this season.
Getting to tonight’s matchup though, Colorado has some great bats in their line up and has shown they can already knock around the D-Backs this year putting up 44 runs in six games already this season. However, all of those games were played in Colorado, typically a hitter’s ballpark, so not all can be blamed on the horrendous Arizona pitching. Colorado has won 4 of those 6 games including a 3-2 win 10 days ago against Ian Kennedy who starts tonight.
Thanks in large part to their pitching staff, Arizona has had 35 overs, 17 unders and 2 pushes on total betting this year, but they are a team that can swing the bats as well. Having a total at 10 seems reasonable and this game should likely sail over that total, but Kennedy has been somewhat of a bright spot all year for Arizona, so I think the better value is on the home team to win SU. Yes, it is tough betting a team as a small favourite who is on a 10 game losing streak, but the Rockies are 3-13 SU in Aaron Cook’s last 16 starts against Arizona, so this is not a team he likes to face. At small favourite odds, taking Arizona on the ML is the way to go tonight.
Take Arizona on the ML.