Minnesota (+135) @ Seattle (-145); Total set at 7
This is game three of a four game set between these two teams, and when taking a first look at this line, it is surprising to see Minnesota as this much of a dog. Yes, they are facing a top tier pitcher in the MLB in Cliff Lee, but the Twins are a first place team up against a struggling Seattle squad that has trouble scoring runs.
Seattle averages 3.73 runs for this season, but they do a bit better when Lee is on the mound as they give him 5.3 runs per start, thanks in part to 8 runs of support on average in his last three starts. Take that MLB Betting trend to the bank? We’ll see…
Another reason why Seattle is listed as a favourite like this is because of the home plate umpire, Mark Wegner, who has watched the home team win 8 of 11 games he has called behind the dish, so Wegner seems to be quite favourable to the home team. Expanding that further, the home team is 21-7 SU in Wegner’s last 28 games calling balls and strikes, so this isn’t anything out of the norm for Wegner.
However, even with a starter like Lee on the hill, and a favourable “homer” umpire, as a bettor you have to like taking Minnesota here at + money. First off, seeing Lee is nothing new for these Twins, many of their current roster have had numerous battles with Lee while he was with the Cleveland Indians. In Lee’s last 10 starts vs. Minnesota dating back to 2005, he is 5-5 SU, and 7-3 on the Over/Under.
Seeing the numbers on the Over is more shocking, but also more relevant in this situation because it tells us at bettors that the Twins have a knack for knocking around Lee a bit. Minnesota failed to put up 4 runs or more only twice during that 10 game span, and given that Seattle averages under 4 runs per game this season, if the Twins can do that, bettors likely have a ticket to cash.
With bats in the line up like Mauer and Morneau, it is tough not to like Minnesota in this spot at plus money. The Twins know that they need to at least earn themselves a guaranteed split in this series, and going up against Lee, and then Felix Hernandez tomorrow, they understand it will be a tough task. I think they come out strong tonight because they are facing an old division rival who they have had success against.
Take Minnesota at +135 tonight.
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