Tampa Bay (-195) @ Baltimore (+182); Total set at 8.5
If you have been reading my baseball posts all summer, you should already know that I will be concerning myself with the total in this game. Huge favorite lines I stay away from (unless I’m playing the dog) and with it being the last month of the season it really is tough to trust big dogs like Baltimore tonight.
Yet, it is somewhat of a letdown spot for Tampa because they come into this series having just claimed series victories over two other AL East rivals that are a lot better than Baltimore. They just finished up a series against Toronto, and Boston before that, so they could be coming into tonight’s game with their stud Matt Garza on the mound a tad overconfident. But, they are in a division race with the Yankees and since they will already know New York’s result today heading into the game, you can expect the Rays to knock the ball around and play well.
That should be an easy task for Tampa against Kevin Millwood tonight, with his 3-14 record and ERA of 5.34. Millwood is 1-6 SU at home this season and has the tendency to give up the big inning cause of the long ball. In 10 starts on the road he has only allowed 7 home runs on 102 hits, but at home he has allowed 92 hits, but 19 home runs! A majority of the time Millwood faces struggles right off the bat in the 1st inning and puts his team down in a hole right from the start. Despite his o.k. pitching of late (coming off a 5-0 shutout win) expect Millwood to revert back to gas-can form and let Tampa light him up early and often.
On the other side, Garza has been phenomenal of late, but he might be the most likely candidate to fall victim to the letdown syndrome I mentioned earlier. Last time he pitched in Baltimore, he gave up 7 runs on four home runs, including back-to-back-to-back shots in that game, so Baltimore has some confidence facing him. The Orioles will be seeing him for the fourth time this year, so let down or not, they should be able to score a few runs off Garza.
A lot of the early action is being booked on the under here because of Garza and Millwood’s recent form of late. However, at a hitter-friendly park like Baltimore, these two rivals should be able to knock around one another and get to 9 runs combined with a few innings to spare.
Take the Over 8.5 runs here.
Related posts:
