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NBA Betting: Game 2 of Thursday Double Header

BelmontEditor — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 20:23:02 +0000

Oklahoma City (-6.5) @ Sacramento (+6.5); Total set at 202

This is the first meeting between these two Western Conference foes this season as the Thunder look to continue this winning streak. This is the fourth game of a five-game road trip for the Thunder and they have gone 2-1 SU and ATS in the three game so far. However, those two victories were hard earned as they needed OT to beat Portland and last second free throws to clinch a three-point victory against Golden State. They are slowly separating from the rest of the Western Conference, but tonight they have to guard against being complacent against a young Kings team hungry for a marquee upset.

Sacramento has been bringing in the money for bettors of late, going 6-0 ATS in their last six, a streak that includes SU wins against Portland and Golden State as well. They are a young, fearless team, understanding about the growing pains they have to endure in the NBA before being able to take the next step. The core of Tyreke Evans, DeMarcus Cousins and Jason Thompson should be there for years to come and coach Keith Smart will be counting on them quite a bit tonight. Sacramento is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games and a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five as dogs, so don’t be surprised if they give one of their best efforts of the year tonight. Smart knows that defending the duo of Durant and Westbrook is a Herculean one and may just try to make sure the supporting cast for OKC is shut down as he lets his players run and gun. They don’t have a great history against the Thunder (1-4 ATS last five meetings) and have only beaten them SU once in the last 10 meetings. Rookie Jimmer Fredette has yet to catch fire in the NBA but he is a prolific shooter coming off the bench for Sacramento and will feel right at home in what should be a fast-paced game tonight. If he and the other bench players for the Kings can stay with the Thunder, the Kings have a legit shot at pulling off an upset.

OKC is 20-5 SU this year and have made a habit of beating on the teams they are expected too. The one exception to that this year was that they lost SU to Washington as 11-point favs to snap a seven-game winning streak at the time. They were sluggish and uninterested against a team they thought they would run over and paid for it. With the grueling schedule this season, every team in the NBA will fall flat once in awhile and with a game in Utah tomorrow night looming, this could qualify as such a letdown spot for the Thunder.

A prime time game should have the Power Balance Pavilion rocking with a full crowd in Sacramento tonight and with the Kings being 6-4 SU and ATS at home this year, 6 points is more than enough to take a shot with them.

Take the points with Sacramento tonight.

Celtics, Lakers meet in Beantown

BelmontEditor — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 17:25:23 +0000

The Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers may not be the favorites in their respective conferences, but it’s always an event when these historic franchises meet up.

Boston is a 3 ½-point home favorite with a total of 177 ½. TNT will have the first half of their Thursday doubleheader at 8 pm ET, followed by Oklahoma City (-7) at Sacramento.

Los Angeles (14-11 SU, 11-14 ATS) has the seventh-best record in the West. The updated conference future odds are led by Oklahoma City (+150) and then followed by the Clippers (+350), Denver (+500) and Lakers (+500).

Coach Mike Brown had the unenviable task of trying to replace a legend in Phil Jackson. He still has three of the better players in the league in Kobe Bryant, Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol, but those trade rumors regarding Orlando’s Dwight Howard aren’t going anywhere, with Bynum and Gasol both bait.

Bryant (29.3 PPG) leads the league in scoring, just ahead of LeBron James (28.5 PPG). Bynum and Gasol combine for 33.5 PPG and 22.5 RPG, but there is no consistent fourth scorer with Steve Blake next at 7.3 PPG.

Lack of scoring depth proved fatal in a 95-90 loss to Philly on Monday. The ‘Big 3’ scored 64 points while the rest of the team combined for just 26. The Lakers are 1-2 SU and ATS during this six-game road trip. They will at least have fresh legs with two days rest.

Boston (14-10 SU, 12-12 ATS) started the season 5-9 SU and it looked like they might not even make the playoffs in this shortened season. However, they’ve won five straight, and nine of their last 10, but still have just the seventh-best record in the East.

Those conference future odds are dominated by Miami (-200) and Chicago (+200), with Boston (+1000) a surprising fourth, also trailing Philadelphia (+800). That seems like too much respect for the aging Celtics.

Looking ahead to Thursday, Boston is only 2-3 ATS during its current winning streak. They don’t have a center to match up with Bynum as the oft-injured Jermaine O’Neal is only good for around 20 minutes even when he plays.

Kobe Bryant also takes great pleasure in lighting up the C’s and he’ll be well rested and ready to break out of his recent shooting slump.

I’m taking the underdog Lakers (+3 ½).

NBA Betting: Indiana vs. Atlanta

BelmontEditor — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 19:21:42 +0000

Indiana (+3.5) @ Atlanta (-3.5); Total set at 187

The Atlanta Hawks are in the midst of a three-game losing streak and whats worse for their fans is they have all been at home. Atlanta hasn’t really been “in” any of those games either as the smallest margin of defeat has been 9 points in that span. That just isn’t acceptable for a perennial playoff team looking to take the next step and become a championship contender. They welcome in a Pacers team that beat them by 12 points about a month ago up in Indiana. Could a bit of revenge be what is needed for the Hawks to get back on track?

The home team has dominated this rivalry in recent years, having won eight of the last 10 meetings SU and going 7-1 ATS in those eight victories. That bodes well for Atlanta tonight considering they were also responsible for the two road wins in that span, going 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their home games. With Al Horford out, the Hawks need to count on better production from Marvin Williams going forward as his 3-for-8 shooting in their last loss just won’t cut it. He will have a tough matchup tonight against the duo of Granger and West at the F position, but if he can find ways to break free offensively and knock down open shots when called upon, Atlanta should be well on their way to another home win against the Pacers. The Hawks are 5-2 ATS in their last seven as favorites of 4.5 or less and do have some solid history against the Pacers. Recent struggles serve as a warning against playing on the Hawks, but they are getting a tired Pacers team that is coming off a tough game last night and aren’t exactly good without rest (6-18 ATS).

Indiana has been a pleasant surprise this year as they sit in 4th in the East, only a few games behind the powerhouses like Chicago and Miami. Making the playoffs last year was a big step for this squad and they are showing how much they have improved in this shortened, chaotic season. They are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games and 5-0 ATS in their last five as underdogs, so it’s not like they will be deterred from their past in Atlanta. But being 10-21 ATS when coming off a SU win and the dog being 5-16 ATS in the last 21 meetings, doesn’t bring any positive vibes to the Pacers tonight. They know they can beat this Atlanta team after their 12-point win earlier this year, but that was largely because of one great third quarter (or one phenomenally bad quarter from Atlanta’s perspective) when Indiana outscored the Hawks 27-9 to basically put the game away. What is lost in that story is that Atlanta was only down three at half and actually won the 2nd and 4th quarters by 5 and 9 points respectively. The Pacers can struggle against this team and with the added variable of being on the road, things won’t turn out well for them tonight.

Lay the points with the Hawks as they get back into the win column tonight.

Minnesota’s Kevin Love out versus Sacramento

BelmontEditor — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 16:46:07 +0000

The Minnesota Timberwolves won’t be ‘Feeling the Love’ when they host the Sacramento Kings on Tuesday night.

The Timberwolves are still six-point favorites with a total of 197-points. Tip-off is at 8 pm ET.

Minnesota (12-12 SU, 14-10 ATS) is thrilled to be .500 right now, even if they’re unhappy about the Love news. The 23-year-old rebounding machine is suspended for tonight and Wednesday at Memphis after stomping on Houston power forward Luis Scola as he lay on the ground.

The Timberwolves won that Houston game 100-91 and are 5-2 SU in their last seven. The ‘over’ is 8-2 in their last 10 games, although going ‘under’ the 204-point total against the Rockets.

The question for Minny is how do they replace Love’s 25 PPG and 13.7 RPG? The answer is they don’t with the next leader scoring Michael Beasley at just 13.5 PPG.

Beasley will likely move into the starting lineup and he loves to shoot the ball. Rookie Derrick Williams should also get more minutes, although the drop-off in rebounding with these two will be huge.

Sacramento (9-15 SU, 11-13 SU) has a couple of interesting, young big men in DeMarcus Cousins and Jason Thompson, but they won’t have an easy time in this game even without Love playing.

The Kings just played last night at New Orleans, a 100-92 win as 2-point dogs. Cousins had 28 points and a whopping 19 rebounds. The road has been unkind to them overall this year at 3-11 SU and 5-9 ATS.

Sacramento has now won three straight games since guard Marcus Thornton returned from his thigh injury. He’s the second-leading scorer at 17.1 PPG and they immediately won home games over Golden State (114-106 OT) and Portland (95-92) upon his return.

Thornton is so important because rookie first-round pick Jimmer Fredette has not panned out as anyone had hoped. He’s averaging just 8.5 PPG and shooting just 36.9 percent from the field. He was a DNP in the two games before New Orleans.

These teams met January 16^th in Minnesota with the home team winning 99-86 as 7 ½-point favorites. Love had 33 points and Luke Ridnour added 25.

I think this game will be a lot closer, but the best play is the ‘under’ 197 points.

NBA Betting: Oklahoma City vs. Portland

BelmontEditor — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 20:22:34 +0000

Oklahoma City (-1) @ Portland (+1); Total set at 196

It is not too often you see an 11-1 team at home getting points, but that is the scenario we have tonight as Portland welcomes in the best team in the West. OKC sits at 18-5 SU on the year and would love to become the 2nd team to beat Portland at home in this shortened NBA year. The Thunder have already fell victim to the Trailblazers once this year, as Portland used a strong second half to win by 10. They were getting 4.5 points in that one, and even after such a stellar performance, Portland finds themselves dogged once again.

Portland has used their home cooking to just annihilate teams of late. They are coming off a 20-point victory vs. Denver and that win followed a 44-point win and 38-point win respectively. In fact, since their first home loss came to Orlando back on January 11th, Portland has won each of their five home games by double digits and are more than ready to take on the best in the West once again. Dating back to last year, Portland is 19-5-2 ATS at home and that includes a 5-2 ATS record as home dogs of 4.5 points or less. They already proved to themselves that they can beat this talented OKC squad, but they also know that Oklahoma City didn’t exactly play their best in the last meeting. That may worry Portland backers, especially since they are 1-8 ATS in their last nine as dogs and 1-6 ATS when coming off an ATS win. They won’t likely win this game by double digits, so do the Blazers remember how to hang tough in close games at home?

Oklahoma City is coming for revenge after Portland became the first, and only, team to beat the Thunder in OKC so far this season. That game was the latter half of a tough back-to-back for the Thunder as OKC had fallen to Dallas the night before. That loss also accounts for the only time the Thunder have experienced a losing streak this year and they don’t want history to repeat itself tonight. The Thunder have had some issues in recent road games, losing two of their last three and need to get a win to right the ship as this road trip continues.

Oklahoma City is 5-1 ATS when coming off an ATS loss and are 8-3 ATS as road favorites so there are some numbers on their side for this one. The duo of Durant and Westbrook is one of the best in the league they will not fear Portland and their home-court prowess.

Look for Oklahoma City to get their revenge tonight.

NBA Betting: L.A. Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets

BelmontEditor — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 17:08:53 +0000

L.A (+4) @ Denver (-4); Total set at 196

Fresh off a dominate second half performance last night against the Clippers, Denver heads home to take on that “other” team from L.A. These two have split the season series 1-1 up to this point with each home team winning SU and Denver going 2-0 ATS. They played as part of a back-to-back over New Year’s and with the second being in the high altitude of Denver, the Nuggets managed to hold off a late surge and cover the 5.5 points they were laying. Tonight, the spread is a little smaller as it seems as if the Lakers have finally gotten their act together and are ready to be known as a top-level, elite team again.

L.A. has won three of their last four contests, but other than a win over “lil bro Clippers” the level of competition just hasn’t been there. Beating Minnesota and then annihilating Charlotte doesn’t exactly scream “quality wins” but after some early season struggles, the veteran Lakers are happy to take wins and have those annoying questions from media types wait for another day. That being said, L.A. knows that playing IN Denver is a different type of beast, especially when it is the start of a long road trip and another great home team (Utah) is on deck tomorrow. The Lakers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games and they are 1-7 ATS in their last eight as road dogs. Recent history is also against L.A. tonight as the Lakers are 1-7-1 ATS in the last nine games against Denver, including 1-4 ATS in the mile high city. Kobe may have to put up another 40+ night just to have a chance, and that still might not be enough with L.A. being 0-4 ATS on the road against winning home teams.

Denver is looking for the L.A. sweep tonight and with the youth and depth they have on their roster it should be of little surprise that the Nuggets are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games without rest. They absolutely ran a tired Clippers out of the gym in the second half last night and while the Lakers may be rested, their age makes them more susceptible to getting tired down the stretch. The Nuggets are 14-4-1 ATS when coming off a double digit win and they are 24-9-1 ATS after putting up 100 plus. The guard duo of Arron Afflalo and Ty Lawson are really coming into their own and with an outside shooter like Gallinari, Denver can really spread out the Lakers and force them to expend substantial energy on the defensive side. If Nene and the other bigs can control the glass and keep the Lakers from extra possessions (they had 17 more shots in that 99-90 loss in Denver earlier), this game will go the Nuggets way.

Lay the points with the home team tonight.

Knicks, Bulls start TNT doubleheader

BelmontEditor — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 18:59:26 +0000

The New York Knicks can get a good start on salvaging their season when they host the Chicago Bulls on Thursday night.

The Knicks are four-point underdogs with a total of 190. Tip-off is at 8 pm ET on TNT right before Denver (+1) at the L.A. Clippers.

New York (8-13 SU, 6-15 ATS) came into this season with a lot of hype after adding center Tyson Chandler to two 25 PPG scorers in Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire. An Atlantic Division title looked like a good bet as well as a playoff run.

Now fast forward to today. The Knicks are 7 ½-games behind Philly in the Atlantic and wouldn’t make the playoffs if they started today. Anthony is scoring 23.7 PPG, but shooting just 40.4 percent from the field. Stoudemire has seen his production drop 7.7 PPG to 17.6 PPG.

Coach Mike D’Antoni is trying to push the right buttons and get team scoring up. It worked for at least one game last Tuesday, a 113-86 win over Detroit as nine-point home favorites. Anthony scored 25 points and shot well for a change.

The Detroit game was a rare cover as well, plus going ‘over’ the total. The Knicks are one of the NBA’s worst ATS teams at 6-15 and one of the biggest ‘under’ squads at 15-6.

Chicago (18-6 SU, 14-10 ATS) has the best record in the Eastern Conference despite fighting through injuries. Guards Derrick Rose and Richard Hamilton have missed five and 13 games respectively. Forward Luol Deng has missed six.

Hamilton (groin) and Deng (wrist) were both out Wednesday at Philadelphia, a 98-82 loss as 2-point favorites. Rose had 18 points and six assists. Ronnie Brewer and Kyle Korver started in place of Hamilton and Deng, who should both be out tonight as well.

The injuries and lineup shuffle for Chicago make them thin on the bench and it won’t be easy playing a ‘back-to-back’ versus a Knicks team that is ready and rested.

Anthony is going to be a very tough matchup defensively and New York will be playing with plenty of energy in front of the national audience, with celebrity fans in tow.

This is the first meeting between the teams this year and I like the Knicks (+4) to win two games in a row for the first time since January 11^th.

Oklahoma City Thunder visit Dallas Mavericks

BelmontEditor — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 17:58:33 +0000

Oklahoma City is looking to gain the upper hand when they visit the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday night.

The Thunder are 1 ½-point road underdogs with a total of 197. Tip-off is at 8 pm ET on ESPN right before the L.A. Clippers at Utah.

These two teams met in the Western Conference Finals last year. Dallas won the series 4-1 and ended up upsetting Miami in the NBA Finals. This is the third meeting this year.

Oklahoma won the first one on December 29th, 104-102 as five-point home favorites. Dallas won the second on January 2nd, 100-87 as 2 ½-point home ‘dogs. That means the Mavs are now 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings overall.

The Thunder (16-4 SU, 11-9 ATS) have the best record in the NBA, but are coming off a 112-100 loss at the Clippers on Monday night. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook combined for 67 points, but James Harden (2-of-10 shooting, seven points) really struggled and it shows that the team is vulnerable as there’s not much scoring outside these three guys.

Dallas (14-8 SU and ATS) is trying to prove it’s still a legitimate title contender. They started the season slow (1-4 SU), but have looked good during their current three-game winning streak (2-1 ATS), scoring 113 PPG with the ‘over’ 3-0.

Dirk Nowitzki returned for the last two of those games after sitting out four (knee injury). He only scored 10 points in each and it could take him some time to get fully into game shape. Lamar Odom is another player who could be sat soon as his awful season isn’t getting any better.

The Mavs are already playing without point guard Jason Kidd. He’s out until mid-February with a calf injury. Rodrique Beaubois has started the last two games in his absence, and while he’s not the distributor that the 38-year-old Kidd is, he’s done a good job with 14 total assists the last two games.

This is the final meeting between the teams in Big D unless they meet in the playoffs again. The Thunder need to prove they can win here and I think they will.

I’m taking Oklahoma City as the small underdog (+1 ½).

NBA Betting: Charlotte vs. L.A. Lakers

BelmontEditor — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 20:52:19 +0000

Charlotte (+12.5) @ L.A. Lakers (-12.5); Total set at 181.5

The Lakers are back at home for a brief time to host the lowly Bobcats tonight before they venture back out on the road again. L.A. is coming off their second road win of the year as they held off a feisty Minnesota squad on Sunday. The Lakers are 10-2 SU at home this year and have posted a 7-5 ATS record in those contests. Like in recent years though, laying double digit points at home has always been a struggle for the Lake-Show, no matter how bad the opponent seems on paper.

Charlotte doesn’t “seem” bad on paper, they actually are straight up a bad team. It appears the Michael Jordan and the management team has finally gotten tired of mediocrity and decided to go the route of full-blown rebuild mode and that includes tanking a season to get one of the next great prospects. They are 3-18 SU this season and have only won once away from home and that was against a struggling Knicks team. Yet, playing against L.A. has had great ATS results for the Bobcats in the past as they are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings with Kobe’s team and even won straight up in L.A. as 11-point dogs almost three years ago to the day (January 27, 2009). Charlotte is 4-7 ATS on the road this year but they are 8-2 ATS when getting 11 or more points in the last 10 opportunities and they are 35-17-1 ATS against teams from the Pacific division. They are 6-0 ATS in their last six trips to the Staples Center to play the Lakers and would like to run that mark up one more tonight.

L.A is hoping that they don’t get caught looking ahead to this road trip coming up that sees them away from home for over a week, facing quality teams from both conferences. They are 5-1 ATS at home when hosting a team that has won less than 40% of their road games, but L.A. is also 6-14 ATS against losing teams, so trying to figure out which Lakers team will show up tonight is tough. As I touched on before, laying double digits is something Kobe and co. does not like to do since they are 14-37 ATS as home favorites of 11 or more. They have been giving 11 or more points to Charlotte in each of the five home games against the Bobcats since early 2007 and have not covered the spread once in that time. Tonight won’t be any different.

Take the points with Charlotte.

NBA Betting: Dallas vs. Phoenix

BelmontEditor — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 19:12:36 +0000

Dallas (-2) @ Phoenix (+2) ; Total set at 186

After beating them at home twice already this month, Dallas heads out on the road to play Phoenix for the third time this month. The Mavericks have beaten the Suns by the scores of 93-87 and 98-89 and would like to get the W in the season series with a win tonight. They are coming off a tough OT win against the Spurs yesterday, so it will be interesting to see what kind of energy they have left against a Phoenix team that has had some rest.

Phoenix has had a tough go about it recently, losing 7 of 10 as they lack offensive consistency to keep them competitive on a nightly basis. However, the three wins in that span is nothing to gawk at – they beat the Knicks, Celtics and Grizzlies (all three playoff teams from last year) and would like to make Dallas the fourth tonight. The Suns beat Memphis in their last outing as 4-point home dogs and are now 2-1 ATS as home dogs this year. Phoenix is also 4-1 ATS in their last five as dogs of 4.5 points or less and would like to improve on that mark tonight. But, their scoring has been inconsistent all season as they have failed to reach 80 or more points twice in the last five outings. In fact, since being known as a fast-paced, run-and-gun team for the majority of the past decade, Phoenix has really switched over to a defensive-minded team this year, only topping 100 points four times in 19 games this season. They have been an under bettor’s dream with a record of 5-14 O/U this season, with both prior meetings with the Mavs staying low. Yet, the total on this one is actually three points higher than the last meeting a week ago and things may be a bit different tonight.

That game stayed below the 183.5 number by 3.5 points even after a 59-point first quarter. No quarter after that had more than 44 points scored in it with the 2nd quarter being the lowest at 36 combined points. G Jason Kidd won’t be available for the Mavs tonight and while many may think that is a negative in terms of points scored, it may actually be the opposite. With all his experience Kidd is very efficient in the half-court sets and has no problem slowing the game down to make sure his team gets the best shot available. Without him at the controls, Dallas is more likely to get out on the break and play a quicker pace of game as their last two outputs (101 and 116 points) show. They won’t mind running up and down with this Suns team because they believe in the end their talent will win out. The Mavs are 18-7-1 O/U after allowing 100 points while the over is 4-1 in this rivalry in the last five games in Phoenix. Recent history might suggest another low-scoring contest but with Dirk and Nash sharing the floor again, (Dirk was out for the last meeting) they will put on an offensive show.

Take the over 186 in this game tonight.