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Lakers, Thunder move series to L.A.

BelmontEditor — Fri, 18 May 2012 19:55:05 +0000

The Los Angeles Lakers are down 0-2 to the Oklahoma City Thunder and are in major need of the homecourt advantage when they meet for Game 3 on Friday night.

Los Angeles is a 2 ½-point favorite with a total of 191 ½. This is the second half of the ESPN doubleheader after Boston (+2) at Philadelphia. The Celtics put a road thumping on the 76ers last game (107-91) and now lead that series 2-1.

The Lakers (45-30 SU, 32-43 ATS) got blown out 119-90 in this series opener, conjuring up memories of the 1985 ‘Memorial Day Massacre’ to Boston in the NBA Finals. The Thunder easily covered as 7 ½-point home favorites and the game went ‘over’ the 192 ½-point total.

Coach Mike Brown’s team certainly has some flaws, but everyone knew they would play much better in Game 2. It looked like a sure Lakers win with a 75-68 lead with 2:08 left, but Oklahoma City pulled a shocker by scoring the final nine points.

L.A. did get the cover as eight-point underdogs, but that’s little consolation to fans who want to see their team advance to the Western Conference finals.

Oklahoma City (53-19 SU, 38-34 ATS) is breathing a sigh of relief as a split heading to L.A. would have been dangerous. Remember they headed to Dallas up 2-0 last round and ended the series by winning and covering the next two on the road.

Kevin Durant is scoring 23.5 PPG this series. He surprisingly took just 15 shots (making nine) last game in over 42 minutes. He needs to be more aggressive offensively on the road and will need to be up around 30 points for the Thunder to win.

Oklahoma City is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS against the Lakers this year. The games in Southern California were 1-1 SU and ATS with the most recent one the 114-106 double OT win by L.A. on April 22.

Metta World Peace was suspended for seven games after April 22 for an elbow to the head of James Harden. World Peace is shooting just 6-of-20 (30 percent) from the field in the two games, but is capable of getting pumped back up in front of the home fans, who don’t care if he maims someone as long as the Lakers win.

I like L.A. (-2 ½) to get back into this series with a win.

NBA Playoffs: Boston vs. Philadelphia – Game 4

BelmontEditor — Fri, 18 May 2012 15:50:01 +0000

Boston (+2) vs. Philadelphia (-2); Total set at 174

The Celtics let their experience show in Game 3 as they dominated the 76ers in the 2nd and 3rd quarters (outscored Philly 61-33) as they cruised to an easy win. Boston shot 51% from the field and hit 45% of their shots from beyond the arc. Garnett, Pierce and Rondo each had at least 23 points in what was the best game Boston has played in quite some time. They regained home court advantage with that win, but another W tonight would put them in the driver’s seat, up 3-1 in the series and heading home.

Philly has likely burned the game tape from the last outing as although they shot well statistically, they did nothing right in their own end and were completed owned by the Celtics. Five guys did score in double digits which is an encouraging sign as they need their supporting cast to be productive each and every night if they want to knock off the Celtics. But defensively is where they need to show drastic improvement tonight as they try and get back to the intensity that helped them win Game 2. They kept Boston off the charity stripe in that game and held Rondo and Pierce to under 10 points each as they forced Boston’s reserves to try and beat them.

Philly has played six of their last eight games under the total and they are 3-7 O/U in their last 10 playoff games as a favorite. They don’t really have the big name scorers on their team to match up with Boston in a shootout, so defense is how they are going to win. They are 1-4 O/U after losing by double digits at home while Boston is 1-4 O/U after winning by double digits. Boston understands that they won’t win too many games in this series in the fashion that Game 3 was played and have to play better defense of their own.

Remember, despite scoring a combined 198 points in this building a two days ago, the total is back to the number Game 2 was at after they went over the total in Game 1 with 183 points. I see this flip flop pattern continuing tonight as the defenses show up.

Take the under.

Lebron James feeling the Heat

BelmontEditor — Thu, 17 May 2012 16:05:40 +0000

The Miami Heat and superstar LeBron James are feeling the heat for Game 3 at the Indiana Pacers on Thursday night.

This Eastern Conference semifinal is all tied at 1-1. Miami is listed as a 1 ½-point road favorite with a total of 181 ½. ESPN will broadcast beginning at 7 pm ET.

The second half of the doubleheader starts at 9:30 pm ET and has the Clippers (+10) at San Antonio. The Spurs won and covered the opener, 108-92 as 11-point home favorites and are now an incredible 15-0 SU and 13-1-1 ATS in their last 15 games.

Miami (51-22 SU, 37-36 ATS) won Game 1 on Sunday (95-86), but lost big man Chris Bosh to an abdominal strain in the process and many were saying their championship hopes were over.

Coach Erik Spoelstra had his team ready to prove otherwise in Tuesday’s Game 2 and looked good into the second quarter with a nine-point lead (33-24). However, Indiana outscored Miami 28-14 in the third and held on for a huge 78-75 win as 6 ½-point ‘dogs.

The Heat have a lot of questions to answer after that game. It starts with James missing two free throws with under a minute remaining that would have given them the lead. His fourth-quarter troubles were infamous during last year’s playoffs and will continue to haunt him.

James and Wade also deferred to Mario Chalmers on the final three-point attempt to tie up the game. They combined for 52 of the team’s 75 points and one of the superstars needs to take that shot. The loss of Bosh also really hurt with no other player scoring more than five points. That won’t get it done, especially on the road.

Indiana (47-26 SU, 36-37 ATS) was celebrating like it won the NBA title after last game, and can’t get too comfortable even at home and with Bosh out again. They haven’t exactly been an offensive juggernaut in this series at 82 PPG and 39.1 percent shooting from the field.

The Pacers are 2-1 SU and ATS at home this postseason. Those came in the five-game series against Orlando with the ‘under’ going 2-1.

Miami went 1-1 SU and ATS away at the Knicks, with both games going ‘under.’ The first two games this series also went below the total.

I like the ‘under’ 181 ½-points again.

NBA Playoffs: L.A. Lakers vs. Oklahoma City – Game 2

BelmontEditor — Wed, 16 May 2012 18:50:31 +0000

L.A. (+8) vs. Oklahoma City (-8); Total set at 196

The Lakers have had some time to rest after their tough opening series and the beating they took in Game 1 of this series. More importantly though, L.A. needs to regroup and figure out a way to slow down Oklahoma’s offense from running all over them again. The younger Thunder annihilated the older Lakers as it this game was over about 2 minutes into the 2nd half. Many of Oklahoma’s starters rested the entire 4th quarter and will be ready to dominate again. Can the Lakers keep up?

L.A. knows all about the old saying of “a playoff series doesn’t really start until someone loses at home” and they would love to even this thing up heading back to Staples. But they didn’t exploit their size advantage inside and simply couldn’t get back on misses or turnovers as OKC scored at will on the fast break. L.A. did win the rebounding battle (43-41) though but they need to win it by a larger margin if they want to hang around this time. They are 5-0 ATS after losing by double digits and 6-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread, but they aren’t exactly known for their prowess as underdogs. L.A. is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 as road dogs and 1-7 ATS in the playoffs as underdogs if we go back a few years. They looked old and slow in the opener and unless they can control the pace of play for the full 48 minutes on the road tonight, chances are they will look old and slow again.

That doesn’t mean that OKC is the play here though as there is bound to be a sense of complacency on their squad after lighting up the Lakers like they did. Kendrick Perkins is still a question mark for the Thunder tonight and losing his size in the middle will put more pressure on the likes of Ibaka and Mohammed. That also means that the Thunder will want to keep the pace of the game at a very high speed, tiring out the old legs of L.A. once again. Veterans like Derek Fisher were brought in to keep this team focused on the prize and they cannot afford to give up home court with a loss tonight. They may not score 119 points again, but they should reach triple digits, especially if they attack the rim more.

L.A. has to have a better shooting performance from their supporting cast if they want to keep up and I believe they will. They are 15-6-1 O/U when coming off a loss and they are 13-5 O/U in their last 18 road games. Slowing the pace down and playing half court basketball is what L.A. wants to do, but that will have to wait until they get home. For now, its all about offense in what should be another shootout.

Take the over 196 tonight.

Celtics and 76ers head to Philly

BelmontEditor — Wed, 16 May 2012 15:16:02 +0000

The Philadelphia 76ers are winning over lots of fans as they play Game 3 of the Eastern Conference semis against the Boston Celtics on Wednesday night.

Philly is a two-point home favorite with a total of 172. TNT will broadcast at 7 pm ET before the Lakers (+8) try to rebound from their opening blowout at Oklahoma City.

The 76ers (40-34 SU, 38-35-1 ATS) are playing with much more confidence than the typical No. 8 seed. They did get fortunate in the first round against Chicago after Derrick Rose (knee) was lost for the year, but they are making the most of their opportunity.

This series is tied 1-1 after splitting the first two in Beantown. Philly easily could have won both, losing 92-91 in the opener after blowing a 10-point fourth-quarter lead. They were able to hold on 82-81 on Monday after leading by eight points (57-49) at the end of three.

Philly covered both games ranging between 4 ½-5 ½-point underdogs. They went 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS at home against Chicago last round with all three going ‘under’ the total. The average total points scored was just 160.3, which partially explains why tonight’s total is so low.

Boston (44-30 SU, 37-35-2 ATS) has little margin for error offensively. They have only reached 90 points once in the last four games and it doesn’t help that Paul Pierce (knee) and Ray Allen (ankle) are both playing injured. Pierce appears more affected right now after shooting just 2-of-9 from the field last game for seven points.

The Celtics went 1-2 SU but 2-1 ATS on the road last round at Atlanta. They did get a huge Game 2 win, 87-80 as 4 ½-point underdogs, playing without the suspended Rajon Rondo and the injured Allen.

The ‘under’ went 3-0 in those road games, so that’s another trend pointing in that direction.

The matchups tonight would seem to favor Philly at home. Their crowd is really getting into backing this young team and guys like Evan Turner and Andre Iguodala are gaining confidence as the playoffs go on. They need to come up big late in games.

The scoring depth of the 76ers is also vastly superior and it will take another great game by Kevin Garnett (19.5 PPG this postseason) for Boston to win.

I like Philly (-2) as the small home favorite.

NBA Playoff Betting: L.A. Clippers vs. San Antonio Game 1

BelmontEditor — Tue, 15 May 2012 19:28:24 +0000

L.A (+11) vs. San Antonio (-11); Total set at 191

After the beatdown we saw a well-rested Oklahoma City team give the Lakers last night, it is not surprising to see a large spread between these two teams for tonight. Remember, the Clippers are still a banged up team and Blake Griffin remains questionable tonight. L.A. did play the Spurs tough all year (2-1 SU) and are one of the few teams to beat San Antonio at home (Spurs are 30-5 at home). But the playoffs are a different beast and after going through that grueling series with the Grizzlies, it is tough to expect the Clippers to have anything left.

That doesn’t mean you should go out and lay the 11 points expecting another beatdown like in the Lakers game last night. San Antonio likes to play fast and rack up the points and that style fits just find with the Clippers M.O. L.A. has never been known for their defense this year and they did allow San Antonio to score at least 103 points in each of the three meetings this year. But L.A. was well within this spread in two of those three games and the only other (a 25-point Spurs win) was on the 3rd day of the season as the Clippers were still beginning and adjusting to the Chris Paul era. They looked strong in their Game 7 win vs. Memphis and could just as easily keep this game within double digits.

But I don’t want to risk that either, as the images of OKC’s explosion last night are still fresh in my mind. As I mentioned, San Antonio has scored at least 103 points in all of their meetings with the Clippers this year and I don’t expect that to change tonight. On the other side of the ledger though is the fact that the Clippers scored at least 90 points in all three of those games, with the final two having at least 100. L.A. is 5-2-1 O/U in their last eight as dogs of 11 or more and they are 21-8 O/U against opponents that win at least 60% of their games.

The Spurs love to run and they also love piling up the points on the Clippers, going 12-3-2 O/U in their last 17 home games with L.A. and they are 7-3 O/U after losing against the spread last time out. They have likely been chomping at the bit to get out and score for real and for me, it really doesn’t matter if they win by single or double digits, I’m taking the over.

Take over 191 tonight.

Heat’s Chris Bosh out vs. Pacers

BelmontEditor — Tue, 15 May 2012 16:07:28 +0000

The injury to Miami Heat big man Chris Bosh is the big story heading into Game 2 of their conference semis against the Indiana Pacers on Tuesday night.

Miami is a seven-point home favorite with a total of 185 ½. TNT will have the coverage at 7 pm ET right before Tuesday’s only other contest, the visiting Clippers (+11 ½) opening up their series against rested San Antonio.

Miami (51-21 SU, 37-35 ATS) barely got the cover last game on Sunday a 95-86 win as 8 ½-point home favorites. The game was tied 70-70 at the end of three quarters before a 25-16 margin in the final stanza. LeBron James (32 points) and Dwyane Wade (29 points) dominated the scoring column.

The Heat are now 4-0 SU and ATS at home in the playoffs and 8-1 ATS in their last nine overall in South Beach.

Coach Erik Spoelstra is certainly happy about the Game 1 performance, but it has come at a heavy price. Bosh suffered an abdominal strain in the second quarter and didn’t return. He did have 13 points and five rebounds in the almost 16 minutes he was in there.

Bosh is currently listed as out indefinitely after having an MRI on Monday. The former power forward has been starting at center recently with Udonis Haslem at the ‘four.’ The combination of Joel Anthony and Ronny Turiaf will fill the void in the middle and Anthony got a lot of starts in the regular season.

Indiana (46-26 SU, 35-37 ATS) may be the NBA’s most underappreciated team and most of it is due to the lack of a star player. That superstar void shows up more in the postseason and certainly in Game 1, when they didn’t score a field goal in the final 4:40.

Danny Granger is the biggest goat of last game after shooting 1-of-10 from the field for seven points. He is scoring 19 PPG in the postseason, but shooting just 38.3%. He has a tough assignment going against James on both ends of the court, but must play better in addition to Paul George (six points).

The Pacers did get 34 total points and 23 rebounds from their big man combo of David West and Roy Hibbert. The Bosh situation should mean an inside edge and I like the Pacers to keep this within the seven points.

Artest and Lakers in Oklahoma City

BelmontEditor — Mon, 14 May 2012 18:03:29 +0000

Los Angeles Lakers forward Metta World Peace will be public enemy No. 1 when his team starts their second-round playoff series at the Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday night.

Oklahoma City is a 7 ½-point favorite with a total of 191 ½. There are only two games tonight and this is the second half of the TNT doubleheader at 9:30 pm ET after Philadelphia (+4 ½) at Boston. The Celtics lead that series 1-0 after just surviving the opener.

World Peace threw a vicious elbow to the head of the Thunder’s James Harden back on April 22. He was suspended for the first six games of their opening playoff series against Denver, but came back to score 15 points in the 96-87 Game 7 clincher on Saturday night.

Defense is another forte of the former Ron Artest and the Lakers will need him to slow down Kevin Durant. These teams met in the conference quarterfinals two years ago with the Lakers winning in six games, and his defense on Durant (35% shooting in the series) was a big reason.

Los Angeles (45-28 SU, 31-42 ATS) wasn’t expected to go seven games with the Nuggets, especially after leading the series 3-1. Denver was able to push the tempo at times against the older and slower Lakers and you can expect Oklahoma City to use the same tactics.

Oklahoma City (51-19 SU, 37-33 ATS) had a solid year overall despite losing the top-seed in the West down the stretch to the Spurs. That would have meant a series against the Clippers this round instead of the more battle-hardened Lakers.

The Thunder swept Dallas in the first round and could be a little rusty after not playing since May 5^th.

This team has two of the game’s biggest stars in Durant (28 PPG in the regular season) and Russell Westbrook (23.6 PPG). Harden (16.8 PPG) isn’t far behind and should be plenty motivated after suffering a concussion by the brutal actions of World Peace.

Remember that Durant and Westbrook were just 21-years-old in that playoff series two years ago. They’re now 23 and there are no excuses about age if they don’t get it done.

These teams met three times between February and April. The Thunder went 2-1 SU and ATS, with the only Lakers win in overtime at home (114-106) in the ‘elbow game.’

Oklahoma City won its only home game over the Lakers, 100-85 as seven-point favorites. Kobe Bryant scored 24 points and while he still may be the best player in this series at age 33, the Thunder will be fresh tonight and I like the ‘over’ 191 ½-points.

NBA Playoff Betting: Philadelphia vs. Boston – Game 2

BelmontEditor — Mon, 14 May 2012 16:29:39 +0000

Philadelphia (+4.5) vs. Boston (-4.5); Total set at 173.5

The 76ers fell victim to the Celtics in Game 1 as a 4th quarter win of 5 points allowed Boston to come back and win this game by 1. The plethora of playoff experience the Celtics have showed up late as Kevin Garnett took the game over with his 29 points and 11 boards. Boston would love to go up 2-0 in the series before they head out to Philly and deal with that crazy crowd. They need to do a better job shooting from the outside though (2 for 18) because if they can knock down some 3-pointers, this game won’t be as close as the opener.

The home team is now 4-0 SU in the four meetings between these two teams this year and all four have eclipsed tonight’s total of 173.5. But as this series goes on, I don’t expect the shots to keep falling as Boston and Philly were ranked #2 and #3 respectively in defense. Neither allowed more than 89.4 points per game during the season and while both have kept their same defensive ranking (#2 and #3) in the playoffs, the average points they allow has dropped. Boston’s dropped almost six points at 83.4 points allowed per playoff game while Philly isn’t too far behind at 85.4. Game 1 had a “feeling out” process to it as they played a bit more free than typical playoff basketball allows, scoring 90 points each.

In terms of the side, Philadelphia is now 3-1 ATS against the Celtics this year but Game 1 was the only time they covered as dogs. In their two home wins, Philly was laying points (-6 and -7.5) and lost by 24 in the only regular season meeting in the Garden. But beating the Bulls gave this young team tremendous confidence as they jumped out to a 5-point lead at halftime and just failed to hold on down the stretch. They know that they can hang with this Celtics team, it just comes down to executing in crunch time, something Philly had issues with at times all year and in the Bulls series. They are hopeful they can come away from Boston with the series split but it will be a tough task.

Boston’s scoring can go through massive droughts too, so even though they are laying a point less in Game 2 compared to Game 1, it is tough to like them in this spot too. Philly managed to beat up on them twice this year and showed in Game 1 that they don’t fear the Celtics. However, I do expect Boston to ramp up the intensity on defense and show these Sixers that scoring won’t come as easily for them as it did in Game 1. The 91 points by Philly was the most Boston allowed in all of their playoff games so far this year and I expect that Doc let his veteran team know about it.

Take the under tonight.

Clippers look to closeout Grizzlies

BelmontEditor — Fri, 11 May 2012 16:26:21 +0000

The Los Angeles Clippers can clinch their first playoff series since 2006 when they host the Memphis Grizzlies in a Game 6 on Friday. Injuries to Chris Paul and Blake Griffin are affecting the point spread.

The Clippers are 1 ½-point home ‘dogs with a total of 179 ½. ESPN will broadcast at 9pm ET, and this is the only remaining series besides Denver and the Lakers (Game 7 on Saturday).

To say this Clippers franchise has had trouble over the years is an understatement. Los Angeles is the franchise’s third stop after beginning as the Buffalo Braves and then becoming the San Diego Clippers for six seasons beginning in the late 1970s.

Los Angeles did win a first-round series in 2006 over Denver before losing to Phoenix. Elton Brand, Corey Maggette and Sam Cassell were the marquee players and Mike Dunleavy was the coach.

The Clips (43-28 SU, 35-35-1 ATS) have even more star power this year with point guard Paul and power forward Griffin. They’re combining to average almost 43 PPG this series. They had 34 total points on Wednesday at Memphis, a 92-80 loss as 6 ½-point ‘dogs. A win would have already ended this series.

L.A. now returns home where it’s 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS this series. However, the first win was by just one point (87-86) and the second required overtime (101-97). Those were too close for comfort and finding a consistent third scorer has remained a problem.

The Grizzlies (43-28 SU, 31-39-1 ATS) feel they should be winning this series instead of trailing 3-2. They are outscoring the Clips 95.6 to 93.0 PPG, but have come up short in the close ones, including blowing a 27-point lead at home in Game 1 (99-98 loss).

Memphis got 42 total points and 17 rebounds last game from its big man combo of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. They both need big games tonight, especially Randolph to make Griffin work on the defensive end.

Small forward Rudy Gay (20.2 PPG this series) also needs a great game to extend this series back to Memphis on Sunday for a Game 7.

Note that both Paul (groin) and Griffin (knee) suffered injuries last game, although should give it a go. I do think that will make this game extremely close and that’s why I like Memphis (-1 ½).