With everyone in the world already knowing who is going to go #1 and #2 in this draft, finding prop bets for this event is proving to be a bit harder than in the past. Stanford QB Andrew Luck is going first overall to the Indianapolis Colts and thanks to the mega-trade made last month, Baylor’s Robert Griffin should go 2nd to Washington. I believed that the Redskins drastically overpaid for that 2nd pick but that is in part because I don’t believe Griffin will have as much success at the NFL level as many others do. But that is a conversation for another day, as the draft starts in prime time on Thursday night, so here are some prop bets worth considering.

Will Miami Dolphins select Ryan Tannehill in the draft? Yes -200 or No +160

While this prop bet is so specific that the “No” at +160 may be tempting to some, this pick may as well be announced now; the same way the Andrew Luck was with Indy. Miami missed out drastically in free agency in their multiple attempts to acquire a QB and are now in no man’s land at the position. They are in desperate need of a QB to build their team around and the hiring of Mike Sherman as Miami’s offensive coordinator makes this all but a lock. Sherman coached Tannehill for his entire collegiate career at Texas A&M and knows exactly what he’s getting here. Sherman is no stranger to the NFL either and with his established relationship already with Tannehill, he can relate to this kid right away and teach him the intricacies of the the NFL game.

This pick is a no-brainer, even at -200, this play is almost free money.

Take Yes at -200.

How many Wide Receivers + Tight Ends to go in Round One: Over 3.5 -400 or Under 3.5 +250

This is another very juicy pick but the only option here is the over. WR Justin Blackmon is going to go in the top 5 or 6, while Notre Dame’s Michael Floyd won’t be too far behind that at 10 or 11. That leaves about 20 picks to get two guys with multiple teams having needs at one of those positions. The Cincinnati Bengals have two selections at 17 and 21 and could very well draft another WR, but other teams like Houston, Tennessee, San Diego and the Jets could be in the market too.

As far as the other prospects go, WR Kendall Wright should go somewhere in the 20’s to a team with WR Stephen Hill from Georgia Tech in the same boat. LSU’s WR Rueben Randle is a borderline first rounder and depending how the draft shakes out, a team like the Pats or Giants could take him in one of the final two spots. We can’t forget about TE Coby Fleener from Stanford either who is the top rated TE on the board and does have his old college coach Jim Harbaugh picking at #30.

Take the over 3.5

Which player will get drafted first? Riley Reiff -250 or Dontari Poe +175

I think that this prop bet is basically a toss up and that their is some decent overlay by selecting Poe here. Poe is an athletic nose tackle that could go to numerous teams in the top 15 based on need alone. Teams like KC at #10, Seattle #11 and Dallas at #14 need help getting pressure from their front four and he would fit on any of those teams.

Reiff is the 2nd rated offensive tackle in the draft behind Matt Kalil but where he fits a need for team won’t be at least until the mid-first round or so. Teams concerned about protecting a franchise QB would love to have him but not many teams are in that position with a need on offensive line without considering the D-line first.

Take Poe at +175

Related posts:

1. NFL Draft: Proposition Bets
2. NBA Draft: Prop Betting
3. Big Favorite Prop Bets that Should Cash in On Super Bowl Sunday – Safety and 2 Point Conversion

Manning had narrowed down his choices to Tennessee, San Francisco and Denver, but was ultimately most comfortable joining executive John Elway and Coach John Fox in the Mountain West. Tim Tebow should be packing his bags now as a trade appears imminent.

The decision of Denver is somewhat surprising as Tennessee is where Manning played his college ball and he is beloved there. San Francisco has the best team of the three and likely would have been the favorite to win the whole thing if Manning signed on the dotted line.

The Broncos have skyrocketed up to 7/1 odds, which sits only behind Green Bay (5/1) and tied with New England. New Orleans is 8/1 and San Francisco 9/1. The 49ers have a major quarterback issue on their hands now as Alex Smith feels betrayed by the team and could sign with Miami.

Denver does seem overvalued at 7/1 despite playing in the weak AFC West. Even assuming that Manning is completely healthy all year (a big question), it will take time to get acclimated to a new team and coordinator. The offensive weapons are good but not great, and the defense isn’t championship caliber as presently constituted.

AFC teams like Houston (12/1), Baltimore (12/1) and Pittsburgh (15/1) all seem to have a lot more value at their current odds. The Texans are thrilled to see Manning finally leave the AFC South and not have to face him twice a year.

Manning would love to play in next year’s Super Bowl for many reasons. One is that it is being played in New Orleans where he grew up and where his father Archie played for the Saints. Peyton is also desperate to add another ring to equal his brother Eli’s mark of two.

2012-2013 Super Bowl Odds Favorites

Green Bay Packers (5/1)

Denver Broncos (7/1)

New England Patriots (7/1)

New Orleans Saints (8/1)

San Francisco 49ers (9/1)

Baltimore Ravens (121)

Houston Texans (12/1)

Philadelphia Eagles (12/1)

New York Giants (15/1)

Pittsburgh Steelers (15/1)

Related posts:

1. 2012 Super Bowl Odds updated
2. Complete List of 2011 Super Bowl Odds
3. Final Four Super Bowl Odds

The current odds have New England as a three-point favorite (even odds). The opening point spread was the Pats favored by three and -115 juice. The total is now 54-points after starting at 55 ½.

New England (15-3 SU, 10-8 ATS) may be favored by the oddsmakers, but most of the so-called experts in the media are picking the Giants. They are pointing to the two big advantages in this game, the Giants pass rush against Tom Brady and their receivers against the much criticized Patriots secondary.

Let’s start with the first issue. There is no doubt that the 34-year-old Brady struggles more against strong pass rushes than he did when he was younger and pre ACL surgery. The team was very lucky to survive Baltimore in the AFC title game (23-20) and the two picks by Brady were a big reason.

Brady also struggled when the Giants invaded Foxboro in early November. Eli Manning had the game-winning drive for the 24-20 win, giving Pats fans déjà vu after the comeback win in Super Bowl 42 that ruined their perfect season. The Giants have a very good pass rush and the New England offensive line will not be able to contain them for all four quarters.

The Giants’ (12-7 SU, 11-7-1 ATS) other big advantage is in the passing game. Manning has been on fire in these playoffs with eight TDs versus just one pick. He was also good in the two final regular season ‘must-wins’ against the Jets and Cowboys.

The G-Men are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games, while New England is 10-0 SU (6-4 ATS) in their last 10. However, the Giants 5-0 is more impressive because the competition was much harder.

It’s really hard to see New England’s covers guys like Kyle Arrington and Sterling Moore matching up with the New York receivers of Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham. Devin McCourty is playing a lot of safety after faring so badly at cornerback during the regular season and Manning is literally licking his chops at the thought of facing this unit.

New England’s only real chance is a tremendous game from Brady and a game-plan from Belichick that somehow hides the weaknesses in the secondary. I can’t count on that from a favorite and thus are enthusiastically taking the Giants.

Pick: Giants (+3)

Related posts:

1. Super Bowl Prop Betting Round Two: Patriots Player Performances
2. Patriots small Super Bowl favorites over Giants.
3. Patriots face Dolphins, weather

We are now only a few days away from the big game and as the chatter about Super Bowl XLVI starts to get redundant, bettors can continue picking through the hundreds of prop bets available for this game. I have already broken down a few prop bets that bettors should have on their radar here and here, and today I’m taking a look at the specific props related to the New York Giants.

Brandon Jacobs total rushing yards: Over 29.5 (-115) or Under 29.5 (-115)

Although his carries have been decreasing the further the Giants go in the playoffs so far, you don’t have to look much further than another Jacobs prop bet to get an understanding of how the odds makers think he will be utilized on Sunday. Over 7.5 (-135) carries for Brandon Jacobs is another prop bet out there and with the over being the bigger favorite, one would have to think he should get at least six or seven carries in this one. After all, during Super Bowl XLII he had 14 totes for 42 yards and saw 18 carries (72 yards) against New England this year with Ahmad Bradshaw out. He is the bigger, bruising back that can get those hard yards for the Giants on short yardage scenarios and he will be called on in this one. He hasn’t eclipsed 22 yards in the last two playoff games but the Giants didn’t need to run the ball vs. Green Bay and the 49ers defense has been stout against the run all year. With the ball in Jacobs’ hands he has the ability to run over the smaller Patriots secondary and bust out a big one. Sharing carries with Bradshaw won’t hurt him too much, but he should find a way to rush for at least 30 yards.

Take the over

Mario Manningham total receptions: Over 3.5 (+140) or Under 3.5 (-170)

The dynamic WR duo of Cruz and Nicks have been getting all the attention heading into this game and deservedly so. They have come up with big plays time and time again during this Super Bowl run and will likely be a major focus for the Patriots defensive unit in preparation. What is lost in that is that many are forgetting about Manningham, simply because he just hasn’t caught one of those game-changing passes from Eli. He has only been targeted 13 times in their three playoff games and hauled in 8 of those passes. With those kind of numbers already, seeing him catch four passes seems tough, but he should have a lot of room to work with with coverage always shading Cruz or Nicks. He has been a favorite target of Manning in the past and given that he was targeted 7 times in the earlier meeting with New England this season, at plus-money odds it is worth the risk to hope for him to break out on the big stage.

Take over 3.5 receptions at +140

Lawrence Tynes total field goals made: Over 1.5 (+110) or Under 1.5 (-140)

Kickers cement their legacy one way or the other in the Super Bowl (Scott Norwood, Adam Vinatieri) and Tynes has already been apart of the big game with the Giants win in 2007. This game as a total in the mid-50’s so points are expected to be scored and it is unlikely that they are all touchdowns. For how bad the Patriots defense ranks statistically, they are fantastic in their own red zone, forcing turnovers and field goal tries. That is where Tynes comes in, as he should likely get at least two opportunities at splitting the uprights in this one. He was 19 for 24 during the regular season and has gone 6 for 8 in the playoffs so far. Two more should be quite attainable.

Take the over 1.5 field goals.

Related posts:

1. Super Bowl Prop Betting Round Two: Patriots Player Performances
2. Super Bowl Prop Betting: Round One
3. Super Bowl Prop: Player to Score 1st TD

Now that the first week of a two-week lead-up to Super Bowl XLVI is in the rear-view mirror, it is time to fully divulge into the massive list of prop bets the big game offers. Late last week I took a look at some initial general game props that had some great plus-money value and today I break down the ones that present some money making opportunities for the Pats. New England opened up as -3.5 favorites for the game but all the early action has been coming on the underdog Giants so far, so not many believe the Pats can get revenge for that SB loss back in 2007. Obviously the New England players have other plans, so let`s see who can step up for them and produce some prop winners here for us at Belmont.

Tom Brady TD passes: Over 1.5 (-350) or Under 1.5 (+270); Over 2.5 (+105) or Under 2.5 (-135); Over 3.5 (+270) or Under 3.5 (-350)

Brady is coming off two polar opposite passing performances in the playoffs as he tied a playoff record with 6 TD passes vs. Denver, only to follow it up with 0 TD passes in the win over Baltimore. That was the first time in his illustrious career that Brady has failed to throw a touchdown pass in a playoff game and you know he will look to rebound with a very strong performance in the biggest game this year. The question then becomes how big of a rebound will Brady make?

In the regular season game this year between the two, Brady finished with two touchdowns and two interceptions in the 24-20 last minute loss. He did attempt 49 passes though (threw 48 in the previous Super Bowl vs. Giants) so it’s not like the game plan will be drastically different for Brady and the Pats this time around. Prior to this year, Brady had never thrown more than 3 touchdown passes in a playoff game and he has only reached that number a few times (although one was in the Super Bowl vs. Carolina). That eliminates the ultra-value prop of over 3.5 TD passes but for those looking for a long-shot, it still isn’t a bad option (remember the total for the game is 55).

Over 2.5 is a quality option though because of the bounce-back factor, pass attempts and what should amount to a back-and-forth game between two very equal opponents. Just under 70% of New England’s offensive touchdowns came through the air this year (39 pass vs. 18 rush) and with the Giants defense ranking 25th in passing touchdown defense during the regular season (allowed 28 passing TD’s), Brady should be able to hit three touchdown passes in a Super Bowl yet again.

Take Over 2.5 touchdown passes for Brady.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis rushing yards: Over or under 47.5 (-115)

So much has been made about how great the Giants pass-rush is, but many are forgetting the best way to slow down a pass rush like that is to run the ball right at them as they have over-pursued. The Giants run defense hasn’t been good for the majority of the season and if you ignore the wildcard round (Atlanta abandoned the run early on after getting down multiple scores) the numbers against the run are actually pretty bad in the playoffs.

Packers QB scrambled for 66 yards on 7 attempts vs. the Giants while the two RB’s (Grant and Starks) went for 76 yards on 14 carries. The next week, New York gave up 74 yards to RB Frank Gore on 16 carries while backup Kendall Hunter went off for 31 yards on four carries. That’s not even mentioning that QB Alex Smith duplicated Rodgers effort, rushing for 42 yards of his own against the Giants. Since this is a bet regarding New England’s RB, I should isolate the backs’ performance in those games. On a sheer yards per carry stat, Hunter led the way with 7.57, followed by Starks at 7.1, Gore at 4.6 and Grant at 4.1 yards per carry. Simply put, any running back that is up against the Giants can expect to average at least 4 yards per carry and the same should go for Green-Ellis in this one.

So will he be able to get at least 12 carries and maintain that average? Considering he had 12 carries for 52 yards in the regular season meeting the chances are good, especially since the Pats only rushed the ball 16 times total in the Super Bowl loss to the Giants a few years back. The ultimate game-planner Bill Belichick will have learned from that and won’t mind giving Green-Ellis a fair share of the load in this one.

Take over 47.5 yards

Will Chad Ochocinco have at least 1 reception? Yes +105 or No -135

Chad was deactivated for the AFC Championship game because he missed some mid-week activities after attending a family funeral, but he should be ready to go for this one. Ochocinco has stated for years that he just wanted to have a shot and experience what it was like to play in the Super Bowl, and despite very minimal production all year, he should get that chance. Also, given the whole body of work he has put in during his career, it is tough to see Belichick sitting him out of this one and not trying to get him at least a catch or two. He was one of the most dominant WR’s in this league over the past decade and to not have a catch in what may be his only shot in the big game would be a travesty. Brady will find him at least once.

Take Yes for +105.

Related posts:

1. Super Bowl Prop Betting Round Three: Giants Player Performances
2. Super Bowl Prop Betting: Round One
3. Super Bowl Prop: Player to Score 1st TD

An extensive list of Super Bowl prop bets was recently released on Belmont.com and like every other year, Super Bowl props are always a fun way to add a little extra action on the game. Remember, there is no need to make serious investments with prop bets because they are often influenced by numerous factors. So here is my first look at some of the props with plus-money odds that I like. As the game gets closer there will be more and more props I will pass on to you.

Will the game be decided by EXACTLY 3 points? Yes +350 or No -450

The spread for this game opened briefly at -3.5 for the Patriots before early action on New York brought it down to the key number of -3 for the better part of this week so far. However, Patriots -2.5 are starting to show up at numerous books online and in Vegas as Giants money continues to roll in. Was the original line that far off?

A lot of talk this week has been about revenge and how the game in 2007 played out etc etc. Well, that game ended with a 3-point differential and knowing that the revenge factor exists in a game that requires no need for outside motivation, chances are this one is a close one again as well. Sportsbooks don’t want this ending up with a 3-point Pats win because of the hassle to refund all those tickets that got + or – 3 and while they did move the line to -2.5 to avoid that now, that isn’t to say a Pats 3-point win is any more unlikely. In fact, with this prop, a 3-point Giants win pays off as well and how epic would it be if this game went into overtime and one of the kickers ends up the hero. Lines makers are sharp and getting back +350 on the thought of them being “dead right” with their opening number (they put it at -3.5 to avoid the “push” scenario) isn’t all that scary.

Take Yes for +350.

Will both teams make a field goal of 33 yards or longer? Yes +145 or No -175

Since, I opened this article by stating that this piece is all about plus-money props, I like the “yes” option here and here’s why. Start with the idea that after adding the additional 17 yards to an attempt (10 yards deep for the goal posts + kicker is 7 yards back from line of scrimmage) the Pats or Giants would have to be no closer than the 16-yard line for a good kick to cash here. Then, since the career long for both kickers is 53 yards, we would have to assume that both offenses need to get to at least the 36-yard line (53-yard attempt from here) to legitimately have a shot at making it. The game is in a dome, so there is a chance that one of these kickers sets a new career long, but there is no reason to expect that here. Therefore, there is a 20-yard window (16 to 36) that both teams must not only reach, but they must stall out and make a field goal.

Now, both the Giants and Patriots ranked in the bottom 3rd of the league in allowing red zone attempts per game (3.5 for the Giants and 3.8 for the Pats) it would be safe to assume that both offenses will get their chances throughout the game. However, both teams tighten up defensively in the red zone as touchdowns are only converted against them 55% of the time. The kickers will get their chances and Patriots K Stephen Gostkowski has kicked a field goal of 33 or more 12 times (18 games) this season, and the closer the game, the more likely he is called on to nail a long field goal. Giants K Tynes doesn’t have the same pedigree, but with New England being so opportunistic defensively when they are backed up, the Giants may play it conservatively on a few drives to make sure they get a shot at points. That includes running the ball three times from the 30, just to ensure a field goal attempt from the 22-yard line or so. Tynes only missed five kicks all season (19-24) and with no wind to deal with for the first time in weeks, a long boot isn’t out of the question either.

Take Yes at +145

Total interceptions thrown by BOTH teams: Over 2.5 +180 or Under 2.5 -240

Brady has come out and told his owner that he “will play better in Super Bowl XVLI” and while that could easily happen it doesn’t mean he is immune to mistakes. In the earlier meeting this season, Brady threw two INT’s in the loss as he chucked it around 49 times in that game. Eli contributed with one INT in 39 attempts and with the passing game being the decided strength for both squads, we can expect a lot of passing attempts in this one. Back when these teams met in the Super Bowl, Brady and Manning only combined for one INT but it wasn’t for a lack of chucking it. Brady threw it 48 times while Eli attempted 34 passes – see a trend here? Turnovers change the course of a game and they are only magnified on the grand stage of Super Bowl Sunday. Brady has already thrown three INT’s in two playoff games this year and while Eli’s numbers are better (1 INT in three games) it hasn’t been for the lack of trying as numerous San Francisco DB’s had their hands on passes and either dropped them or ran into each other (a sign that he is throwing into double coverage a lot). The Patriots defense finished 2nd in the league in interceptions with 23 and the Giants weren’t too far behind with 20 picks of their own during the regular season.

Three interceptions isn’t much to ask for when you can expect at least 80 passes attempted in this one.

Take over 2.5 interceptions at +180

Related posts:

1. Super Bowl Prop Betting Round Three: Giants Player Performances
2. Super Bowl Prop Betting Round Two: Patriots Player Performances
3. Patriots small Super Bowl favorites over Giants.

This is the third year that the Pro Bowl will be played the week before the Super Bowl and early trends point to this being another high scoring affair. The total is at 74 after the combined score in each of the past two games have hit 75 or more points. But with some notable absences from each side with the Pats/Giants Super Bowl yet to be played, this game may not  as high scoring as it has been in years’ past.

The AFC comes in as “heavy” dogs in this one as the spread is usually a field goal or less. But with 8 players from the Pats unavailable to play, this lineup isn’t exactly one of the best the AFC has fielded in recent years. Not to mention that other key players are missing because of injury and the list is quite extensive : RB Arian Foster, RB Ray Rice, OL Jake Long, OL Maurkice Pouncey, DL Haloti Ngata, LB Terrell Suggs, S Ed Reed and S Troy Polamalu are all out. Obviously the league is loaded with superstars and found suitable replacements, but that is all they are is “suitable.” With QB Ben Roethlisberger making the trip but expecting to play very little (recovering from his own injury) the bulk of the AFC’s chances rest with Phillip Rivers and Tom Brady’s replacement; rookie Andy Dalton. With so many playmakers out as well and the RB’s consisting of MJD, Ryan Mathews and Willis McGahee, it is not like this roster screams “All-Star team” by any means.

Now contrast that with the NFC’s roster who are only missing two Giants from their roster (Manning and Pierre-Paul) and have all the stars from two record-breaking offenses (Green Bay and New Orleans) available for the contest. 2011 was a record year for offensive production and while numbers were up for many teams, New England, Green Bay and New Orleans were largely responsible for those weekly numbers and now the NFC gets to benefit in this year’s Pro Bowl. As a result of that fact and injuries on the AFC side, the NFC has a decided edge in depth across the board, especially at the skill positions. A WR core of Larry Fitz, Steve Smith, Greg Jennings and Roddy White is pretty formidable on its own,  let alone with Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees throwing them passes.

Lay the points with the NFC in this one.

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2. Super Bowl Betting Trends and Power Rankings
3. 2011 Super Bowl odds updated

The odds have already been posted and New England is a three-point favorite (minus -115) with a big total of 55 ½-points.

New England (15-3 SU, 10-8 ATS) has won 10 games in a row, but the 23-20 AFC title win over Baltimore yesterday was extremely fortunate. Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco threw for 306 yards and outplayed Tom Brady (239 yards, two picks). Flacco hit receiver Lee Evans for the apparent game-winner with under 30 seconds remaining, but the ball got stripped at the last second by the unheralded Sterling Moore.

Baltimore still could have sent the game into overtime, but kicker Billy Cundiff inexplicably hooked an easy 32-yard field goal. His teammates looked on in disbelief that such a hard fought game could be decided like that and they’ll have all offseason to think about it. Covering the rather large seven-point spread was little consolation to coach John Harbaugh.

The Giants (12-7 SU, 11-7-1 ATS) have won five straight games and were almost equally as fortunate yesterday, winning 20-17 in overtime at San Francisco. A punt return fumble by Kyle Williams sealed the deal in the extra session and he also had a punt return miscue that gave the G-Men a lead in the fourth quarter.

New York covered the spread as two-point underdogs and outgained the 49ers in total yards (352-328). Eli Manning had 316 passing yards, although it took him 58 attempts. San Fran had two touchdowns passes (28 and 73 yards) to tight end Vernon Davis that gave them a great chance to win, but they (mostly Williams) ultimately gave the game away.

We’re going to have full analysis of The Big Game over the next two weeks, including a look at the hundreds of Super Bowl betting props that will be available. While it’s still too early to make a prediction, let’s just say that the Giants are certainly playing as well as the Patriots right now and arguably better.

The total also looks a little high given the meeting between the teams earlier this year (24-20 Giants win) and how the New York defense matches up against New England.

Related posts:

1. Super Bowl Prop Betting Round Two: Patriots Player Performances
2. Patriots won’t get revenge versus Giants
3. Final Four Super Bowl Odds

New Orleans was another trendy Super Bowl pick with its high-powered offense, but they lost at San Fran (36-32) in a turnover-marred thriller. The four remaining teams are all capable of winning a title and both games should be great on Sunday.

Note the picks last week went 1-2 ATS with the year-to-date record at 25-27 ATS (excluding pushes).

Baltimore (+7) at New England – Saturday 8:00 pm ET

Baltimore (13-4 SU, 8-8-1 ATS) should feel happy to be here after a 20-13 win over Houston. That would have been a different outcome if not for a 4-0 turnover margin. The Ravens’ four losses this year have all come on the road and three of them were as 5 ½-10 point favorites.

New England (14-3 SU, 10-7 ATS) had its way with Denver last week 45-10 and should send a thank you card to Tim Tebow for eliminating Pittsburgh the week before. Coach Bill Belichick knows he has a much tougher matchup this week, especially with Baltimore’s great pass rush against quarterback Tom Brady.

Belichick will look to slow Baltimore down with the no-huddle offense. That will work some, especially with the short passing game to Wes Welker and the tight ends being so hard to stop. However, the running game must not be ignored and Brady can’t have any turnovers.

Baltimore will score on this New England defense, but I like the Pats to pull away in the fourth.

Pick: New England (-7)

NY Giants (+2 ½) at San Francisco – Sunday 6:30 pm ET

The Giants (11-7 SU, 10-7-1 ATS) are playing incredible football right now, winning their last four (4-0 ATS) when a loss in any would have ended their season. It’s hard to believe they lost four straight earlier this season, but this is a completely different team right now with their confidence sky-high.

San Francisco (14-3 SU, 13-3-1 ATS) is happy to be at home where they’re 8-1 SU and 8-0-1 ATS this season. Quarterback Alex Smith had a breakout game against the Saints, but can he do it two games in a row? The G-Men have a very good pass rush and the 49ers offense can be very predictable.

The total in this game is 42 points. I think that’s a little high given the quality of both defenses and that it could be raining. This is the much easier pick for me this week even at just less than a field goal.

I think the Giants win this game outright and advance to the Super Bowl.

Pick: NY Giants (+2 ½)

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1. NFL Week 4 Picks
2. Patriots won’t get revenge versus Giants
3. NFL Divisional Round Picks

New England (-110 odds)

New England (14-3) has supplanted Green Bay as the odds leader after a 45-10 win over Denver. It was the perfect matchup as they had already seen Tim Tebow and their unusual offense once. The Pats main weakness is pass defense and they shouldn’t be too worried about Baltimore’s Joe Flacco this week, one reason they’re 7 ½-point favorites.

The Pats also won’t have to face high-flying pass offenses like the Saints or Packers in a potential Super Bowl matchup.

New York Giants (+350)

The Giants (11-7) are tied with San Francisco for next on the odds list at +350. That’s a little surprising considering the G-Men are 2 ½-point ‘dogs for this Sunday’s NFC title game.

New York is gaining a lot of believers after their 37-20 win at Green Bay on Sunday. There were even a couple of questionable calls by the officials or it could have been worse. Coach Tom Coughlin’s team also knows it can beat New England if they meet in the ‘Big Game’. They won 24-20 at Foxborough in November and shocked them four years ago in the Super Bowl.

San Francisco (+350)

San Francisco (14-3) survived the powerful New Orleans Saints last week, 36-32 as 3 ½-point home underdogs. The 49ers benefited greatly from winning the turnover battle (5-1), but they also showed their mettle by scoring two touchdowns in the final 2:11. It was a coming out party for quarterback Alex Smith (299 passing yards, 3 TDs, no picks).

Weather could be a factor for this Sunday night with rain expected. That would favor the home team who has the more limited offense.

Baltimore (+600)

Baltimore (13-4) is the long shot of the group. A big part of that is playing in New England Sunday. The other reason is they barely survived (20-13) Houston last week, despite it being at home and playing against a rookie quarterback in T.J. Yates. Winning the turnover margin 4-0 was the big difference, but they can’t count on that this week.

The Ravens have also struggled on the road this year at 4-4 SU and ATS, compared to 9-0 SU (4-4-1 ATS) at home.

Related posts:

1. 2012 Super Bowl Odds updated
2. Who will win the Super Bowl: Final Four odds
3. Manning, Broncos at 7/1 Super Bowl Odds