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7th August 2010 in NFL Betting

Three Favs include: Eric Berry (+450), Ndamukong Suh (+450), Gerald McCoy (+750)

As the NFL season fast approaches, there is no shortage of betting options offered at the Belmont to wet one’s appetite for action. This future proposition bet consists of a list of 19 players from the 2010 draft and a 20th option which is the “rest of the field” @ +550. That field bet is actually the third favourite behind Berry and Suh, but I didn’t list it there because you would have to know who is in the field first, so here it is: It will go player, odds, position and team playing for.

Eric Berry (+450) SS, Kansas City Chiefs;  Ndamukong Suh (+450) DT, Detroit Lions;  Gerald McCoy (+750) DT, Tampa Bay Buccaneers;  Earl Thomas (+750) SS, Seattle Seahawks;  Kyle Wilson (+1200) CB, New York Jets;  Rolando McClain (+1200) LB, Oakland Raiders;  Sean Weatherspoon (+1200) LB, Atlanta Falcons;  Sergio Kindle (+1200) DE, Baltimore Ravens;  Carlos Dunlap (+1400) DE, Cincinnati Bengals;  Devin McCourty (+1400) CB, New England Patriots;  Jerry Hughes (+1400) DE, Indianapolis Colts;  Joe Haden (+1400) CB, Cleveland Browns;  Derrick Morgan (+1400) DE, Tennessee Titans;  Taylor Mays (+1500) FS, San Francisco 49ers;  Terrence Cody (+1500) DT, Baltimore Ravens;  Tyson Alualu (+1500) DE, Jacksonville Jaguars;  Brandon Graham (+1500) DE, Philadelphia Eagles;  Brandon Spikes (+1500) LB, New England Patriots;  Jason Pierre Paul (+2000) DE, New York Giants.

So now that we have the list of candidates, let us continue with a history lesson. Since this award has been given out in 1967, the results have overwhelmingly favoured a certain position. Once, the award was shared by two players, both played the same position so there are actually 44 winners in the 43 years since its inception; the results?

6 times the award has been given to a CB, with the last being Charles Woodson in 1998. Woodson came out as the reigning Heisman trophy winner so that could never have been deemed a surprise.

8 times the award has been given to a DE, with the last being Julius Peppers in 2002. As DE’s are typically pass-rushers that can drop back and play coverage like linebackers at times, they can have some great numbers in the tackles and sacks statistics which helps there cause.

5 times a DT has won the award and the last won was Tim Bowens in 1994. This has reflected how the game has changed over the years, and well the big guys up front are a necessity to win, they don’t produce outstanding stat lines to win an award like this.

2 times a S has won the award, and you have to go all the way back to Mark Carrier in 1990. With safety’s being the “center-fielder” of the defence it is often tough for a rookie at this position to become dominant in his first year; they are just looking to not get burned.

23 times a LB has won the award, including two linebackers sharing it in 1980 both from the Atlanta Falcons. In fact, linebackers have won the last 7 years in this category largely in part because of the enormous amount of tackles they can get in a season, and their athletic talent (speed and strength) allows them to cover the whole field well.

It is tough to argue with those numbers, especially with the recent run linebackers have been on and the nature of their position compared to the others. Although some guys drafted that were listed as DE will see the majority of their time at LB in the pros (Dunlap, Kindle). I still have to play the percentages here.

Kindle had an unfortunate accident injuring his head and is out for an undetermined amount of time, so that takes him out of the running. Therefore, the other linebackers include McClain, Weatherspoon, and Brandon Spikes. With McClain being the highest drafted, the most talented, and playing for a bad team like Oakland, he is my pick to take the award this year. At +1200 he gives bettors some value and his tackle numbers will be off the charts.  He plays a lot like Patrick Willis of the 49ers, (won in 2007), so McClain should have a great year.

Don’t sleep on the field though either as three other LB’s were drafted in the 2nd round or better that didn’t make the list, so that is always a good way to hedge here.

Take Rolando McClain to win Defensive ROY honours in 2010.

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