Carolina Regular Season Wins: Over 7.5 at (+130) or Under 7.5 at (-150)
Carolina finished with an 8-8 record in 2010 and they did it with a disgruntled Julius Peppers and a turnover machine in Jake Delhomme playing for them. They got rid of both of those players this off-season, and as fate would have it, they get to play against both of them in 2010. Now, with losses like that Carolina’s defensive pressure on the front line takes a hit and getting pressure on the QB will suffer. The Panthers were 10th in the NFL last year with a +6 in turnover margin, but did take the ball away 4th most of any team with 37 takeaways.
If it wasn’t for Delhomme and the other QB’s almost single-handedly matching those takeaways (20 INT thrown compared to 22 INT for Carolina) the Panthers could have done a lot better last season.
The tough thing for Carolina this year is that they will be relying on young QB’s to take them over the hump. Matt Moore is the front runner for the starting job, and he is also the resident veteran at the position with 4 years of NFL experience, but only minimal starts. The Panthers went out and drafted QB Jimmy Clausen from Notre Dame and Tony Pike from Cincinnati in the 2010 draft to put some pressure on him, and do not be surprised if Clausen (who was decorated as the most “pro” ready QB in the draft) wins the spot at some point in the season and learns on the fly in his rookie season. Rookie QB’s and wins don’t always line up well, but given the Panthers schedule, Clausen and company could scramble up to an 8-8 year.
If Carolina can continue to be in the positives on turnovers, they should be alright this season because they still have a dynamic running game with a 1-2 punch and they still have the playmaker Steve Smith on the outside. I am looking at playing the Over 7.5 here partly because of the juicy plus money odds and that is where the value is, but also because the best thing for a young QB in the league is to have a solid running game and the Panthers already have that.
They do finish the year with four of their last six games on the road which can be tough, but they do get to play Cleveland and Seattle in that stretch, two teams that will struggle in 2010. They have the 6th easiest schedule in the league, despite playing the defending champs twice and the tough AFC North, so getting to .500 is definitely in the picture. IF they can handle their business against the Buccaneers twice, at least split with Atlanta and play New Orleans tough, they could end up with a winning record in their division.
Then you count games against St Louis, Cleveland, and Seattle as wins, the Panthers are already sitting at 6-7 wins without beating a quality team (minus their division). They get to host the Bengals, Bears, 49ers, Ravens and Cardinals as well, so Carolina could easily put together a win or two there, with road games against the Giants and Steelers still unaccounted for.
With the kind of value you are getting on the Over 7.5 here, I believe it is worth a bet on the Panthers to win at least 8 games this year. Coach John Fox is one of the longest tenured coaches in the NFL and he knows how to get every inch of effort out of his players.
Take Carolina Over 7.5 wins in 2010.
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