Miami Regular Season Wins: Over 8.5 (-120) or Under 8.5 (even)
The Dolphins had one of the harder NFL betting schedules in the league last season, but thanks to a 3rd place finish in the AFC East, the degree of difficulty on their opponents for 2010 has decreased a bit. However, Miami still has a tough schedule this year; especially concerning the non-division games they play. Getting even money on Under 8.5 wins this year is worth a look and here is why:
Miami always has tough games within the division each year, but given that New England and New York are legitimate Super Bowl contenders this season means that the Dolphins will have to step up that much more. Two games against each of those teams along with two against Buffalo, projecting a win total there is tough. Miami has to play at New York on Dec 12, and at New England on Jan 02, so two cold weather games against top notch division rivals isn’t exactly something Miami has excelled at over the years. They also play these two foes back to back in weeks 3 and 4, both in primetime in Miami, so the pressure and the spotlight will be on them, and the Dolphins will need to respond well if they want to make any kind of noise in 2010.
Besides those two games early on, the Dolphins actually start out with a horrific schedule. They open the season in Buffalo, head down to Minnesota, host the Jets and the Patriots, take their bye week and then they might have the worst stretch of non-division foes in the whole NFL. Miami goes to Green Bay in Week 6, followed by games vs. Pittsburgh, @Cincinnati, @Baltimore, vs. Tennessee and vs. Chicago. Miami’s players have got to be saying “are you kidding me, we have to play these teams all in a row.” Getting three tough AFC North opponents back to back to back can be death for a team’s season and Miami has to play the two playoff teams (Cincy and Baltimore) on the road. Pittsburgh, Tennessee and Chicago are always tough opponents and heading into Lambeau Field is never fun for visitors. It is completely possible that Miami puts up a record of 2-4 SU or worse during this stretch, but it is here that the outlook of Miami’s season will be determined.
Besides playing the Jets and Patriots in the cold late in the year, the Dolphins finish up with games against Oakland, Cleveland, Buffalo and Detroit, all winnable games but by then it might be too late. The addition of Brandon Marshall at WR must prove to be huge for Miami in 2010 if they want to make a post-season run and their wildcat offense must continue to evolve and surprise.
They may only have the 17th toughest schedule in the rankings but the stretch of their first 10 games is like that of no other team. If Miami gets upset by Buffalo in Week 1, they could end up starting the season something like 0-8 by the time they play Tennessee and then a bet on the Under is all but cashed. Too many things line up against the Dolphins this season, especially if they get bit by the injury bug at some point.
Take Under 8.5 wins for Miami in 2010.
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