As a sports bettor, it is your implicit mission in life to find value wherever you can. And not just in the betting lines or on the racing forms. Your quest for value never ends. You’re a little hobbit roaming through a desolate world, always in search of opportunity, wherever it may be.
One of your great obstacles in this endeavor is something that the more established wagerers call “fan money.” Fan money, in short, is wagering from unsophisticated bettors that influences the line of a game. If the general public bets a game one way, Sportsbooks may nudge the line to make the other side of the bet more attractive.
Here’s an example. In college football, Ohio State opens their season at home, against Marshall. Let’s pull a number out of thin air and say that the Buckeyes will be 20-point favorites against the Herd. But as the game approaches, the line moves and Ohio State is now a 24-point favorite (meaning that you’re betting either “Ohio State minus 24″ or “Marshall plus 24″). You do the legwork and realize that no new information came to light in that time and nobody on either team got hurt. So why did the line move?
Most likely, the line moved because of the disproportionate amount of money that was bet on Ohio State. Consider that the school is a perennial national championship contender with a nationwide fan base. That’s a potent combination that attracts a lot of dumb money.
So what does that mean for you? It creates opportunity that otherwise would not exist. Marshall was getting 20 points. Now their getting three touchdowns and more! Let’s do some quick, “back of the envelope” research to examine what we’re getting.
We’ll take a look at how Ohio State’s offense typically does right out of the gate by reviewing their first two games of the last five years.
| 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
| vs. Navy, 31-27 | vs. Y’town St, 43-0 | vs. Y’town St, 38-6 | vs. N. Illinois, 35-12 | vs. Miami-OH, 34-14 |
| vs. USC, 18-15 (L) | vs. Ohio, 26-14 | vs. Akron, 20-2 | @ Texas, 24-7 | vs. Texas, 25-22 (L) |
In the first two games of the season over the last five years, Ohio State outscored their opponents by 20 points or more four times. But look again: in one game (Miami of Ohio, 2005), Ohio State won by 20 points exactly, and in two games they blew out Youngstown State, who are a Division I-AA team (yeah, I know it’s FCS now. I don’t care. I’m still calling it I-AA). Our other game, Northern Illinois in 2006, Ohio State won by 23 points.
So we have a good foundation of data that tells us that Ohio State is very unlikely to outscore its early opponents by 24 points. In fact, they haven’t done it against a I-A team in five years! We might need more research before locking down this bet, but we can see that, in our hypothetical scenario, that we clearly have an edge.
Being able to spot fan money and the opportunities that it creates will go a long way toward boosting your bankroll throughout the season. You’re looking for teams with national followings and, let’s be honest, fans that bet with their hearts more than their brains. Do your homework, and you’ll be making smarter wagers over the long haul.
Happy betting.
Related posts:
