Cincinnati (+4.5) @ New England (-4.5); Total set at 45
What a day QB Tom Brady had yesterday. On his way to work at Gillette Stadium he gets in a car accident but came out unscathed. Later in the day he becomes the highest paid active player, signing a 4 year, 72 million contract extension. Do you think flashes of 2008 haunted the Patriots execs and Brady himself, after news broke about his car accident? That year, a Kansas City player rolled into Brady’s knee in game 1 and put him out for the year. I think neither side wanted to risk a similar scenario and the crash only sped up the process to make sure that they got a deal done before Sunday’s game.
Sunday’s game should be an entertaining one with three of the best WR’s in the NFL over the past decade involved. Now everyone is waiting for the T.O-Ocho experiment to implode, but I have a tough time seeing that happen this year. Yes, both WR’s on Cincinnati are attention whores that have complained in the past about not getting their touches and being the focal point of the offense, but they are good friends and I don’t think they would want to step over one another through the media to complain this season. T.O knew he was going to a “run-first” offense in Cincinnati, and Chad knew that as great as it is to have T.O on his team, his personal numbers will likely go down.
That being said they do play a New England defense that they can exploit in the secondary, especially if Cedric Benson can get going early on. The Bengals are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings with the Patriots, but have lost the last two (2006 and 2007) both in Cincinnati. Back then the Bengals had a porous defense which is the main difference heading into this game. Cincinnati’s defense was ranked 4th in the league last season and they have made a few additions this summer to improve its depth. They will need it up against Brady, Moss and company, but the Bengals might have the best CB tandem in the NFL with Jonathon Joseph and Leon Hall really coming into their own last year.
New England is 0-3 ATS in their last three season openers played at home, but they did win all three games SU. They have a dynamic passing game, but the running game has come into question this summer with no one really knowing whether Laurence Maroney or Fred Taylor will get the bulk of the work.
The opening line in the summer was at +6, but has dropped because of action on Cincinnati on the money line (+180). The Patriots are still getting quite a bit of support ATS, but the total is seeing over 85% of bettors backing the over here. With the talent at WR both teams have, it isn’t surprising to see that many on the over. This game will likely end up as a shootout or one of those grinding affairs that end up 20-17, similar to the Saints/Vikings last night.
With both teams having huge division rivalry games on deck, neither wants to head into Week 2 0-1 or off a horrible performance. This game should be a close one either way and for that reason I lean towards taking the points here with Cincinnati. Of all the underdogs in Week 1, I believe Cincinnati and Baltimore are the two with the best shot at winning straight up, so taking the points is never a bad option.
Related posts:
- NFL Betting: Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
- Football Betting Analysis: Cincinnati Bengals Season Win Totals
- AFC Wildcard Odds: Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots
- Tom Brady’s contract extension with the New England Patriots is within reach
- NFL Preseason Betting: New Orleans Saints @ New England Patriots
