Friday, July 16, 2010
Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey
ESPN2 at 9:00 (EST)
Welterweights: 10 Rounds
Zab Judah, 38-6 (26 KOs), Brooklyn, New York Vs. Jose Armando Santa Cruz, 28-4 (17 KOs), Lincoln Heights, California
Fight Odds: Zab Judah (-675), Jose Armando Santa Cruz (+475)
Over/Under: Over 9.5 (+110), Under 9.5 (-130)
Preview: Fight fans get to see a name fighter on regular cable, as former multiple world champion Zab “Super” Judah takes on Jose Armando Santa Cruz on ESPN2 on Friday. Judah is looking to breathe some new life into his sagging career, while Santa Cruz looks to get back to his prior form, which saw him nearly become champion a few years ago.
This fight will be held a few pounds over the junior welterweight limit of 140. Judah, having petered out in the ultra-competitive waters of welterweight, looks to return to the division where he once had people seeing him as a future superstar. It’s difficult to call his welterweight career a disappointment, as he did manage to become linear champion and make a bunch of money. After stoppage losses to Miguel Cotto and Joshua Clottey, it became apparent that he was a bit out of his depth in this glorious era of welterweights.
So now he is trying to move back down. Seems like a reasonable move, but it might not be as easy as it seems. An older fighter dropping down never seems to work, despite seeming like a wise move. We think back to Ray Leonard dried out at junior middleweight against Terry Norris, Chris Byrd getting hammered at light heavyweight, and Oscar De La Hoya fighting at 145 against Pacquiao, and it’s clear this move doesn’t always work. Rather than coming into the ring with new life, these fighters seemed depleted and impotent.
This probably won’t happen with Judah. While there is some concern about a fighter in his thirties fighting at a weight he fought at in his teens, he never really seemed like a true welterweight. His size and power deficits didn’t surface right away, but as the division evolved, he was somewhat exposed. It became clear that if Judah was going to make some more noise in the game, it would have to be at 140 lbs. Despite over a decade at the world-class level, Judah is still only 32 and should be able to make a few waves.
Santa Cruz was the victim of one of the worst robberies of the past few years when he appeared to clearly outpoint World Lightweight Champion Joel Casamayor in 2007, only to lose a scandalous split decision. The 29-year old California contender has fought only 4 times since then, winning 3 and losing by knockout to ex-champ Antonio Pitalua. It has been saddening and disappointing to see Santa Cruz robbed of a prestigious title, then flounder over the past few years a bit. He was denied a chance to prove his championship credentials and he probably was emotionally deflated after his misfortune. Now he has a chance to get his career on the right track.
For both fighters being such known quantities, there are a lot of questions surrounding their fighting form. Judah has fought only once in the past 20 months, while Santa Cruz hasn’t been able to display the form that nearly made him champion. Judah, despite his setbacks, is still a powerful offensive force, especially against non-welterweights. Against a blown-up lightweight like Santa Cruz, Judah might be able to show him power he hasn’t experienced before. Judah is the same guy who gave Floyd Mayweather fits, before fading over the second half of the fight. His punches figure to resonate more against smaller-sized fighters.
Prediction: Santa Cruz might not be ready to be put out to pasture just yet. A prideful and experienced fighter, one should expect him to make a game effort on Friday night. The problem for Santa Cruz is that he will not be hard for Judah to find. Combine that with the fact that Judah is fighting with the understanding that there are no more tomorrows, and it might be a hard night for Santa Cruz.
Judah can be erratic, so you never know what you’re getting with him from fight to fight. He is also a bit chinny, which raises another red flag. The odds on Judah are not very appetizing, so let’s see what else we can come up with. Santa Cruz has been stopped 3 times in his 4 losses. He is facing perhaps the most offensively gifted fighter of his career and he might not be quite what he once was. I like Judah by knockout.
Bet: Lay the –130 on the “under.”
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